近年来中国房地产发展迅速，在整个国民经济中的地位日益凸显，房地产倍受政府及社会的关注。在中国，房地产的定量研究相对不足。本文通过分析房地产市场交易的供需关系，用最小二乘方法，建立供需曲线的方程，并从住房空置入手估算投机者数量，从而估算商品房原本合理的价格，再定义房地产泡沫指数，并给出定级标准及对应措施。另外，还分析房地产与社会经济发展的协调性，用主成分分析等方法合成房地产与社会经济发展的协调指数，进一步利用3-σ原则进行评级。

In recent years, the development of China real estate is rapid, since real estate plays a important role in National economy, government and people pay more and more attention to it. Relatively, the study of real estate in data is Inadequate. This paper analyzes supply and demand relationship in housing market by least square method, and then estimates the quantity of speculators to finds out the reasonable housing price so as to define booms and busts index in real estate prices with grading and policy. Furthermore, it also analyzes the coordination of real estate and social and economic development by principal component analysis, determine the level of the coordination by 3-σ principle.