中文题名: | 升温背景下全球风沙灾害演化规律研究 |
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保密级别: | 公开 |
论文语种: | chi |
学科代码: | 070503 |
学科专业: | |
学生类型: | 学士 |
学位: | 理学学士 |
学位年度: | 2023 |
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学院: | |
第一导师姓名: | |
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提交日期: | 2023-05-21 |
答辩日期: | 2023-05-09 |
外文题名: | Spatial and Temporal variation in global sand and dust storm events |
中文关键词: | |
外文关键词: | Warming ; Global ; sand and dust storms ; Temporal and spatial variation |
中文摘要: |
以升温为背景的气候变化改变着全球风沙灾害的时空格局,风沙灾害持续时间、发生频次和影响的空间范围等都有所变化。了解近几十年来全球风沙灾害时空变化特征及其影响因素,揭示气候变化对风沙灾害的影响机制,有助于预测变暖背景下的全球沙尘活动的影响范围和强度,为实现区域可持续发展提供科学支撑。本文根据SYNOP数据,分析了1992年-2021期间全球风沙灾害的空间范围和变化趋势,从纬度、大洲、沙区和国家(次国家)等多尺度分析了全球风沙灾害活动的时空特征和演化趋势;利用偏相关分析确定了全球风沙灾害年际变化的决定因素和区域差异分析;并定性分析了风沙灾害年际变化与土地利用的关系。研究结果表明: 1)全球风沙灾害影响范围广,在1990年-2022年期间,出现过沙尘灾害事件的站点占总比为79.35%,;从国家尺度上来看,在32年期间,全球有67%的国家和地区累计沙尘灾害天数大于30天;沙尘灾害年频率大于5天的受灾省区面积占全球国家陆地国土面积比例为18.13%。非洲撒哈拉周边国家和地区沙尘灾害最为严重,沙尘活动覆盖全国,沙尘灾害年频次在30天以上;中东、西亚各国和蒙古、巴基斯坦、阿根廷等国家风沙活动覆盖全国所有省份,年均沙尘灾害天气在10-30天之间。 2)全球风沙灾害无显著的总体规律,但总天数在波动中缓慢下降,地区差异显著。从站点来看,观测到沙尘灾害事件的站点中有13.2%出现显著变化趋势,显著增长和显著下降的站点各占一半,沙尘灾害年频次在20天以下的站点更容易增长或下降。亚洲西部(0.1-0.5天/年)和东部(>0.5天/年)、北非中部(>0.5天/年)、南美洲南部地区(0.1-0.5天/年)呈现显著上升,北非东部和西部(>1天/年)、大洋洲(0.1-0.5天/年)呈现显著下降趋势。 3)全球风沙灾害天数年际变化与区域温度、降水、风速、植被相关性明显,空间分异规律显著。其中温度对风沙灾害天数年际变化的影响较为突出,以负相关性为主,显著性站点占比在12.83%。不同沙区下自然要素对风沙灾害天数的年际变化与存在区域分异,其中南非沙区的降水、大洋洲沙区、中东沙区的温度和植被,以及西南亚沙区的风速对风沙灾害天数的年际变化影响最为显著。全球和区域风沙灾害年际变化的关键影响因子以单因子和双因子影响为主导,其中温度-植被对风沙活动的限制性最强。不同沙区影响的主导因子不同,其中大洋洲沙区的风速和植被,以及南非沙区的温度、降水-植被主导了两个地区的风沙灾害天数的年际变化。区域土地利用变化与风沙灾害活动的关系不明显,其影响机制和原因需要进一步探讨。 |
外文摘要: |
With global warming, Climate change is changing the spatio-temporal pattern of global sand and dust storm events, and the duration, frequency of occurrence and spatial scope of impact of sand and dust storm events have become uncertain. Understanding the temporal and spatial characteristics of global sand and dust storm events and their influencing factors in recent decades, revealing the impact mechanism of climate change on sand and dust storm events, will help predict the scope and intensity of global sandstorm activities in the context of warming, and contribute to regional sustainable development. This paper analyzes the spatial scope and change trend of global sand and dust storm events from 1992 to 2021, and analyzes the temporal and spatial characteristics and evolution trends of global sandstorm disaster activities from multiple scales such as latitude, continent, sandy area, and country; using partial correlation analysis determined the determinants of the interannual variation of the global sandstorm disaster and the regional difference analysis; and qualitatively analyzed the relationship between the interannual variation of the sandstorm disaster and land use. Research indicates: 1) The global wind and sand disasters have a wide range of influences. During the period from 1990 to 2022, 79.35% of the sites had Sand and Dust storms; from a national perspective, during the thirty-two years, 67% of the global The cumulative number of days of Sand and Dust storms in the countries and regions is more than 30; the area of affected provinces and regions with an annual frequency of Sand and Dust storms of more than 5 days accounts for 18.13% of the land area of countries in the world. Sand and Dust storms are the most serious in the countries and regions surrounding the Sahara in Africa, with dust activities covering the whole country, and the annual frequency of dust disasters is more than 30 days. The dust disaster weather is between 10-30 days. 2) There is no significant overall pattern of global sandstorm disasters, but the total number of days fluctuates slowly, with significant regional differences. From the perspective of stations, 13.2% of the stations that observed sand and dust disaster events showed a significant change trend, and the stations with significant growth and significant decline accounted for half. Western Asia (0.1-0.5 days/year) and eastern (>0.5 days/year), North central Africa (>0.5 days/year), South America (0.1-0.5 days/year) showed a significant increase, and the eastern and western North Africa (>1 day/year), Oceania (0.1-0.5 days/year) showed a significant downward trend. 3) The interannual variation of the number of days of global sand and dust storm events is significantly correlated with regional temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and vegetation, and the spatial differentiation is significant. Among them, the influence of temperature on the interannual variation of wind and sand disaster days is more prominent, mainly negative correlation, and the significant stations account for 12.83%. The interannual variation and regional differences of natural elements in the number of days of sand and dust storm events in different sandy areas, among which the precipitation in the South African sandy area, the temperature and vegetation in the Oceanian sandy area, the Middle East sandy area, and the wind speed in the Southwest Asian sandy area have an effect on the number of sandstorm disaster days The interannual variation has the most significant impact. The key factors affecting the interannual variation of global and regional sand and dust storm events are dominated by single-factor and double-factor effects, among which temperature-vegetation is the most restrictive to sandstorm activities. The dominant factors affecting different sandy areas are different. Among them, the wind speed and vegetation in the sandy area of Oceania, and the temperature, precipitation-vegetation in the sandy area of South Africa dominate the interannual variation of the number of days of wind and sand disasters in the two areas. The relationship between regional land use change and sandstorm activities is not obvious, and its impact mechanism and reasons need to be further explored. |
参考文献总数: | 71 |
馆藏号: | 本070503/23018 |
开放日期: | 2024-05-20 |