生育政策作为我国的一项重要基本国策，其历史变迁进程是国内公共政策变迁史的微观写照，关乎经济社会的全面协调、可持续和高质量发展。研究生育政策的变迁逻辑和细节能够反映出顶层设计对我国人口形势的判断和各个时期工作的重点，有利于完善政策制定体系，提高政府科学决策水平，促进人口长期均衡发展。本文基于政策范式和间断均衡的理论框架，进行了详尽的文献综述，使用内容分析方法，筛选建立了296份中央层面生育政策文件的小型数据库。设置了测量人口发展目标的“人口数量”、“人口质量”、“人口结构”、“人口服务”、“人口发展”五个维度。搭建了生育政策变迁量化分析的框架模型，分析了时间维度上生育政策环境、政策图景、政策目标、政策价值取向、政策行动主体、政策适用对象、政策工具手段等随着历史变迁的动态演进特征。运用内容分析软件NVivo12 Plus对文本进行量化挖掘和聚类分析，通过分析生育政策的发文主体、颁布频率、文件数量、文件类型、内容变化等演变过程，探索新中国生育政策历史变迁的内在逻辑和政策范式的阶段性转变。研究发现，生育政策相关文件主要为法律法规和规范性文件，具有强权威性和高信效度。计划生育政策作为一项长期性的基本国策，存在非常明显的长期均衡和短时间断特征，变迁进程主要分为三个阶段：1956—1978年是政策探索与自愿倡导初期，此阶段受“革命”与“发展”的双重政策图景影响；1978—2013年是“一胎化”政策的控制均衡期，这一阶段以相对单一的“发展”政策图景为核心，严格控制人口数量，开始注重人口结构和流动人口分布；2013—2023年是政策垄断瓦解和调整期，政策目标和政府注意力由人口数量控制与人口结构调整逐渐转变成以高质量发展为目标的人口结构优化和人口管理与服务。

As an important basic state policy in China, the process of historical changes in birth policy is a microcosm of the public policy changes in the country, and is related to comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable economic and social development. Studying the logic and details of the changes in birth policy can reflect the top-level design’s judgement of China’s demographic situation and the focus of work in each period, which is conducive to improving the policy-making system, enhancing the government’s scientific decision-making level and promoting long-term balanced population development. Based on the theoretical framework of the policy paradigm and punctuated-equilibrium theory, this paper presents an exhaustive literature review and uses content analysis to screen and build a small database of 296 central-level birth policy documents. The study sets up five dimensions for measuring population development goals, namely population quantity, population quality, population structure, population services and population development. A framework model for the quantitative analysis of birth policy changes was also constructed, and the characteristics of changes in the policy environment, policy picture, policy objectives, policy value orientation, policy tools, policy subjects and policy targets in the time dimension were analyzed. And the content analysis software NVivo12 Plus was utilized to extract and cluster the texts by analyzing the evolution process of birth policies in terms of issuing subjects, promulgation frequency, number of documents, document types and content changes. In this way, this paper explores the inner logic of the historical changes of China’s birth policy and the transformation of policy paradigm.

The study finds that the relevant policy documents are mainly laws, regulations and normative documents, with strong authority and high credibility. As a long-term basic state policy, the family planning policy is characterized by a short period of time with a very obvious long-term equilibrium, and the process of change is divided into three main stages: 1956-1978 was the early stage of policy exploration and voluntary advocacy, which was influenced by the dual policy images of “revolution” and “development”. The period 1978-2013 was a period of controlled equilibrium under the one-child policy, when population amount was strictly controlled while focused on population structure and population distribution. The period 2013-2023 was a period of disintegration and adjustment of the policy monopoly, when policy objectives and government attention gradually shifted from quantitative control and demographic adjustment to demographic optimization and population management and services with the goal of quality development.