中文题名: | 中国城市碳排放核算方法及应用研究——以京津冀城市群为例 |
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保密级别: | 公开 |
论文语种: | 中文 |
学科代码: | 0714Z1 |
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学生类型: | 博士 |
学位: | 经济学博士 |
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学位年度: | 2019 |
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研究方向: | 国民经济核算 |
第一导师姓名: | |
第一导师单位: | |
提交日期: | 2019-06-19 |
答辩日期: | 2019-05-23 |
外文题名: | CITY CARBON EMISSION ACCOUNTING OF CHINA AND APPLICATION RESEARCH: JING-JIN-JI AGGLOMERATION |
中文关键词: | |
中文摘要: |
城市作为各国的经济活动中心,已经成为世界减排工作的重心。中国作为当前碳排放量最大的国家,其2018年的城镇化率已经达到59.58%。然而,国家政府对城市层面碳排放的核算至今还未形成统一、规范的标准。这样的现状并不利于各省市对国家中长期发展规划中的单位GDP二氧化碳排放量这一约束性指标的落实,尤其,城市是各省市下达国家减排指标的最底层行政区划。鉴于此,本文首先梳理了国际城市排放核算协定书,结合中国实际情况,尝试构建了适用于中国国情的中国城市层面排放核算框架;并且,以京津冀城市群为例,分别从生产责任排放、消费责任排放(碳足迹)和收入责任排放等三种排放责任分摊模式出发,对京津冀14个城市的碳排放责任进行核算和分析,最后给出恰当的政策建议。
本文的创新之处主要体现在:(1)理论方法创新。①较为系统的对当前城市层面碳排放核算指南进行汇总对比分析,为构建适用于中国城市的碳排放核算框架提供参考。②厘清生产排放与范围1排放和范围2排放之间的差异,厘清生产排放和“范围”排放概念并进行对比分析,有助于判断生产排放和“范围”排放的使用范围并确定适用于中国城市碳排放核算的概念。(2)应用创新。①创新性的使用城市尺度多区域投入产出表进行城市群的碳排放分析,扩展了当前单一区域城市投入产出表的应用,填补城市尺度多区域投入产出表在排放研究中的应用不足。②将供给侧改革与城市碳排放分析相结合,通过投入产出模型将生产要素供给者与排放生产者联系在一起,从构建低碳社会的角度,给供给侧减排措施提供依据。
本文的主要研究结果如下:
中国城市层面排放核算框架构建。框架的构建主要借鉴国际城市排放核算协定书,从边界界定、温室气体排放种类、核算角度、核算内容以及核算方法等方面,给出了具体的核算框架。其中,提出除生产责任排放和消费责任排放这两种常见的排放责任分摊方式外,收入责任排放也应成为排放核算的方法之一,从而考虑完整经济系统中的各活动主体。生产排放对应生产者,消费排放对应消费者,收入排放对应初始收入获得者(即要素收入获得者)。
生产责任排放核算及分析。由于“范围”排放在城市排放清单中盛行,本文通过核算京津冀14个城市的生产排放和范围1排放、范围2排放,进行对比,发现生产排放和“范围”排放最大的差异在于范围1排放和范围2排放之间存在重复核算问题,重复核算问题不仅出现在单一城市内部,也出现在城市群排放加总过程中。随着城市群协同发展的兴起,本文认为生产排放比“范围”排放更适合中国城市排放核算。然后,基于核算的京津冀14个城市分部门排放进行核算结果的分析。京津冀14个城市除北京,其余城市的第二产业占比均较高;然而,城市之间的生产排放差异巨大。结果表明在当前中国以煤炭为主要能源的能源结构下,一个地区的生产排放受其经济规模以及经济结构影响。
消费责任排放核算及分析。本文首先使用Leontief需求驱动多区域投入产出模型核算京津冀14个城市的消费排放,与生产排放进行对比,得到各个城市的碳排放净出口属性,然而,无论是排放净流入地还是排放净流出地,其实质上均存在与其他地区之间的贸易往来。其次,对消费排放的排放产生地进行分解,14个城市的进口排放显示满足京津冀14个城市最终消费的主要是在中国境内生产的货物和服务,可以认为区域间贸易对一个地区的消费排放影响超过国际贸易。最后,对消费排放进行分部门分析,第二产业中各部门排放足迹普遍较高。消费排放的减排措施是,可以引导最终消费者选择隐含碳排放更低的货物和服务,从而达到排放产生地的减排效果。
收入责任排放核算及分析。本文使用Ghosh供给驱动多区域投入产出模型核算京津冀地区14个城市的供给侧排放,分别从收入排放与GDP的关系、分部门排放分析以及分部门的劳动-资本比率和碳排放效率等3方面对城市收入排放进行分析。研究表明:京津冀地区14个城市的收入排放与增加值(即初始投入)存在正相关关系,但是这一关系会受到碳排放效率的影响。从分部门角度看,北京的服务业、资源型城市的部分采矿业和所有城市的电力、热力生产部门是碳排放密集型部门,这些部门应该成为政策制定者的重点关注对象。本文通过有效地结合供给侧碳排放、碳排放效率和劳动-资本比率这三个指标,表明劳动密集型部门通常是碳排放效率部门。与消费排放的减排措施相比,与增加值相关联的供给侧排放减排措施更具针对性和实用性,可以直接针对初始投入者制定减排措施,而不是通过影响消费者的行为倒逼排放产生地减排。
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外文摘要: |
Cities, as the economic center of countries, have become the focus of the world’s mitigation action. China is the country who has the largest carbon emissions. Moreover, China’s urbanization rate had reached 59.58% in the end of 2018. However, the central government has not set a unified standard for carbon emission accounting at the city level. It is not conducive the implementation of the binding indicator, CO2 emissions per unit of GDP, in the national medium and long-term development at provincial level. In particular, cities are the lowest administrative division which provincial governments issue national reduction targets. Under these backgrounds, this paper firstly organized the international emission accounting protocols at the city level, combined with China’s surroundings, constructed a China’s urban emission accounting framework. Then, take Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei agglomeration (Jing-Jin-Ji) as an example, calculating production-based emission, consumption-based emission (carbon footprint) and income-based emission, analyzing emission responsibilities from three accountings, and providing appropriate policy recommendations.
The innovations of this paper are following: (1) theoretical creative work. ○1 Compare and analyze the current emission accounting protocols at city level systematically, and use the experiences for constructing a carbon emission accounting framework to China’s cities. ○2 Clarify the disparity between production-based emission and scope 1 emission and scope 2 emission, compare these two terminologies to determine the using range and decide which one is the best terminology for China’s cities. (2) Applying creative work. ○1 This is a creative work to use multi-regional input-output table at city level to study the agglomeration which extends the application of city-scale single-regional input-output table and filles the gap of city-scale multi-regional input-output analysis in the greenhouse gas field. ○2 Combine supply-side reforms with urban carbon emissions, link primary inputs suppliers with emission producers through input-output analysis and provide evidences from a perspective of building a low-carbon society.
The main findings of this paper are as follows:
Construct China’s emission accounting framework at city level. The basis of the framework is the international emission accounting protocols at city level. We considered boundary definition, greenhouse gas types, accounting perspectives, accounting contents and accounting methods to set a specific accounting framework. Moreover, the framework suggests that income-based accounting should become another emission accounting, except common production-based accounting and consumption-based accounting, that all of economic entities could be included in this accounting framework. Production-based accounting corresponds to producers, consumption-based accounting corresponds to consumers, and income-based accounting corresponds to primary income beneficiaries (factor income earners).
Calculate and analyze production-responsibility emissions. Since “Scope” emission is prevalent in urban emission protocols, this study compared production-based emission ,and scope 1 emission and scope 2 emission of 14 cities of Jing-Jin-Ji, found that the main difference is a double accounting between scope 1 emission and scope 2 emission. The double accounting does not only in intra-city, but also in inter-city when aggregates emissions of cities in an agglomeration. Therefore, this study argues that production-based accounting is more suitable for Chinese urban. Then, we calculated sectoral production-based emissions of 14 cities of Jing-Jin-Ji. Except Beijing, the value added of secondary industries occupied a larger proportion in GDP. Production-based emissions of cities have massive gapes. The results indicate that with China’s coal-oriented energy mix, the production-based emission of a given city is affected by its economic scale and economic structure.
Calculate and analyze consumption-based emissions. Firstly, we applied the Leontief demand-driven multi-regional input-output model to calculate the consumption-based emissions of 14 cities of Jing-Jin-Ji, compared with the production-based emissions to obtain the net export attributes of emissions of each city. In fact, both net inflow city and net outflow city trades with other regions. Secondly, decomposed consumption-based emissions based on where emissions emit. The import emissions of 14 cities show that the final consumption of 14 cities is mainly supported by goods and services produced in China. We think the impact of regional trade on a given city’s consumption-based emission is larger than international trade. Finally, analyzed sectoral consumption-based emissions, sectors of the secondary industry have a higher carbon footprint in general. The emission reduction from consumption-based emissions is that lead the final consumers to choose goods and services which have a lower carbon emission, as that to achieve the mitigation effect of emitters.
Calculate and analyze income-based emissions. We applied Ghosh supply-driven multi-regional input-output model to calculate supply-side emissions of 14 cities of Jing-Jin-Ji, analyzed emissions from the relationship between income-based emission and GDP, analyzed emissions by sectors, analyzed emissions from labor-capital ratio and carbon efficiency. The results show that: The income-based carbon emissions of the 14 cities were found to be positively correlated with value added - the supply-side input, but subjected to carbon efficiency. In general, the services of Beijing, several mining sectors of resource-oriented cities and the production of electricity in all of the cities are the most carbon-intensive sectors and should therefore be the main focus for policymakers. The combination of labor-capital ratio, carbon efficiency with the income-based emission indicates that the labour-intensive sectors are typically carbon-efficient. Compared with the consumption-based emission mitigations, supply-side emission reductions linked to the industrial value added are more targeted and practical. It is possible to set emission reduction actions directly on primary investors, rather than reducing emissions by influencing the behaviors of consumers.
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参考文献总数: | 221 |
馆藏地: | 图书馆学位论文阅览区(主馆南区三层BC区) |
馆藏号: | 博0714Z1/19002 |
开放日期: | 2020-07-09 |