盘锦湿地拥有丰富的生物资源和独特的湿地景观，它对辽河三角洲及周边地区的生态平衡调节、自然环境净化具有不可替代的作用。自上世纪80年代以来，盘锦湿地因农业开发、水利工程建设、石油开采等原因导致了天然湿地面积减少，湿地生态功能退化，急需从数量和质量两方面对盘锦湿地变化及其影响因素开展定量评估，以期为盘锦湿地生态环境保护、湿地资源合理开发提供数据和依据。

本文分析了2000 – 2018年盘锦湿地的气候变化、土地覆盖利用变化及植被净初级生产力（Net Primary Productivity, NPP）变化，并进一步揭示了气候变化和土地覆盖利用变化对湿地植被NPP的影响程度，获得了以下研究结果和结论。

（1）盘锦市植被生长季的平均温度、总降水量和太阳总辐射量在2000 – 2018年期间均无显著变化趋势，但存在较大的年际波动。

（2）2000 – 2018年，盘锦市苇田面积由原来的7.20×10⁴ hm²减少至5.95×10⁴ hm²，减少了17.4%；稻田面积由原来的1.79×10⁵ hm²减少至1.55×10⁵ hm²，减少了13.7%。

（3）盘锦市苇田植被NPP多年（2000 – 2018年）均值为560 – 730 gC/m²/yr，整个苇田分布区的均值为646.6 gC/m²/yr；稻田植被NPP多年均值为430 – 595 gC/m²/yr，整个稻田分布区的均值为508.3 gC/m²/yr。2000-2018年，盘锦市苇田植被NPP每年的空间均值为590 – 740 gC/m²/yr，无显著上升趋势；而其每年总值为380 – 470 Gg C/yr（1 Gg = 10⁹ g），以2.44 Gg C/yr²的速率呈显著下降趋势；稻田植被NPP每年的空间均值为460 – 580 gC/m²/yr，每年总值为770 – 990 Gg C/yr，二者均无显著变化趋势。

（4）2000 – 2018年，气候变化对苇田和稻田植被NPP变化的平均贡献率分别为-12.93%和-36.97%。单独的温度变化对苇田和稻田植被NPP变化的平均贡献率为-7.63%和-19.91%，单独的降水变化对苇田和稻田植被NPP变化的平均贡献率分别为17.06%和34.33%，单独的太阳辐射变化对苇田和稻田植被NPP变化的平均贡献率分别为-27.04%和-48.21%。

（5）2000 – 2018年，土地覆盖利用变化使苇田和稻田植被NPP总值分别减少了1903.9 Mg C/yr（1 Mg = 10⁶ g，相对减少0.5%）和24300.8 Mg C/yr（相对减少2.7%）；该时段导致苇田植被NPP总值下降的最大原因是苇田转换成水域和河滩或裸地，导致稻田植被NPP总值下降的最大原因是稻田转换成建设用地、水域和河滩或裸地。

Panjin Wetland has abundant biological resources and unique wetland landscapes. It plays an irreplaceable role in regulating the ecological balance and purifying the natural environment in Liaohe Delta and its surrounding areas. Since 1980s, agricultural developments, water conservancy projects, oil extractions and other reasons in Panjin Wetland have caused the reduction of wetland areas and the degradation of wetland ecological functions. It is urgent to quantify the changes in Panjin Wetland and its influencing factors in terms of quantity and quality. The assessment aims to provide data and basis for the ecological environment protection and the rational development of wetland resources in Panjin Wetland.

This paper analyzed the changes of climate, land cover/use, and net primary productivity (NPP) of Panjin wetland from 2000 to 2018, and further revealed the impacts of climate change and land cover/use change on wetland vegetation NPP. The obtained results and conclusions are as follows:

（1）The average temperature, total precipitation and solar radiation of the vegetation growing seasons in Panjin had no significant trends during 2000 – 2018, but there were significant interannual fluctuations.

（2）From 2000 to 2018, the reed area in Panjin reduced from 7.20 × 10⁴ hm² to 5.95 × 10⁴ hm², a decrease of 17.4%; the paddy area reduced from 1.79 × 10⁵ hm² to 1.55 × 10⁵ hm², a decrease of 13.7%.

（3）The mulit-year (2000 – 2018) average NPP of the reed vegetation in Panjin is 560 – 730 gC/m²/yr, the average value of the entire reed distribution area is 646.6 gC/m²/yr; the mulit-year average NPP of the paddy vegetation is 430 – 595 gC/m²/yr, the average value of the entire paddy distribution area is 508.3 gC/m²/yr. From 2000 to 2018, the average annual spatial NPP value of reed vegetation in Panjin was 590 – 740 gC/m²/yr, with no significant upward trend; its total annual value was 380 – 470 Gg C/yr (1 Gg = 10⁹ g), showing a significant downward trend at the rate of 2.44 Gg C/yr²; the average annual spatial NPP value of paddy vegetation was 460 – 580 gC/m²/yr, the total annual value was 770 – 990 Gg C/yr, both of which had no significant change trends.

（4）From 2000 to 2018, the average contribution rates of the climate change to NPP changes in reed and paddy vegetation were -12.93% and -36.97%, respectively. The average contribution rates of temperature change to NPP changes in reed and paddy vegetation were -7.63% and -19.91%, the average contribution rates of the precipitation change to NPP changes in reed and paddy vegetation were 17.06% and 34.33%, the average contribution rates of the solar radiation change to NPP changes in reed and paddy vegetation were -27.04% and -48.21%, respectively.

（5）From 2000 to 2018, changes in land cover/use reduced the total NPP value of reed and paddy vegetation by 1903.9 Mg C/yr (1 Mg = 10⁶ g, relative decrease of 0.5%) and 24300.8 Mg C/yr(relative decrease of 2.7%); the biggest reason for the decline in the total NPP value of reed vegetation was the conversion of reeds to waters, riverbanks and bare lands, the biggest reason for the decline in the total NPP value of paddy vegetation was the conversion of rice fields to construction lands, waters, riverbanks and bare lands.