国务院在对《河北雄安新区规划纲要》的批复中指出，要协调推进“五位一体”和“四个全面”布局，坚持绿色发展，努力创建科学合理的空间布局，构建新型绿色生态宜居城市，打造高质量发展模式样板。土地是人类生产和生活的主要载体，土地的利用方式变化会引起生态系统结构的改变，从而影响生态系统服务的需求和供应。雄安新区土地利用类型复杂多样，作为疏解北京非首都功能的主要承载地，在满足其经济社会发展需求的同时，融合城、田、林、淀等要素，改善空间格局，保障其国土资源可持续发展成为目前面临的关键问题之一。因此，为了推进区域生态文明建设及生态系统服务科学发挥，促进雄安新区的可持续发展，深入分析其土地利用及生态系统服务供需的变化具有重要的科学意义。同时雄安新区是全国的发展样板，对其规划建设成果进行预测评估有助于在新区整体建设过程中进行监督预警，也为未来城市建设中进行可持续土地利用规划管理的复制和推广提供参考。

因此，本文以雄安新区为研究区，首先基于ArcGIS和SPSS软件对雄安新区1980年-2015年间七期遥感影像进行分析，利用数理统计、空间分析等方法确定了区域土地利用的时空变化特征，并利用灰色关联分析和主成分分析方法，结合土地利用数据、社会经济数据和气象数据，确定了影响雄安新区土地利用变化的主要驱动因子和驱动机制。然后基于土地利用数量结构及生态系统服务供需矩阵，对雄安新区生态系统服务供需进行空间可视化，量化了雄安新区生态系统服务的供给能力和需求强度，并利用Person积矩相关方法识别了生态系统服务间的权衡与协同关系。最终设置区域自然增长、生态环境保护、城市快速发展和国家总体规划四种情景，利用IDRISI软件的CA-Markov模型对雄安新区的土地利用和生态系统服务变化进行多情景模拟预测，并提出了雄安新区未来的科学管理建议。

本论文的主要研究结论如下：

（1）1980-2015年雄安新区各土地利用类型数量结构发生了明显变化，耕地、水域、建设用地是雄安新区的主要土地利用类型；1980-2010年雄安新区土地利用处于发展时期，土地利用程度不断增加，2010年后趋于稳定；2005-2010年间雄安新区的土地利用动态度变化最大，综合动态度为1.17%；雄安新区在1980-2015年的不同时段内土地利用类型转移方向呈现不同特点，1980-1990年81.67％的转变为开垦耕地，1990-1995年以保护白洋淀生态为主，水面增加了129km²，1995-2000年建设用地扩张，挤占耕地121km²，2000-2005年主要为开垦水域补偿耕地，共计增加69km²耕地，2005-2010年继续进行城市化发展，建设用地增加111km²，2010-2015年则向生态环境保护方向转化，退耕还淀56km²。雄安新区土地利用变化受自然驱动力和社会驱动力共同作用；农村从业人员，年末总人口，平均气温和降水量为主要驱动因子；城市化建设在促进了雄安新区经济发展的同时，带来了人口增长，粮食和居住需求增加，不断改变着雄安新区的土地利用类型，进而又促进经济发展。

（2）雄安新区生态系统服务功能具有较高的空间异质性，安新县的白洋淀地区为总生态系统服务盈余区，重点城市化地区集中为赤字区；1980-2015年间，雄安新区生态系统服务的供给能力呈下降趋势，需求强度呈增加趋势，其中供给服务和文化服务一直保持盈余，而调节服务与支持服务始终表现为赤字，总生态系统服务始终呈现赤字状态，且赤字不断加大。在99%显著性水平下，雄安新区生态系统服务供给能力的热点区集中在以水域为主要土地利用类型的地区，冷点较小，需求热点区以耕地为主要土地利用类型，冷点为白洋淀区域周围。在0.05显著性水平上，雄安新区生态系统服务需求强度之间均为强协同关系，供给能力之中供给服务和调节服务为显著的协同作用，其余为均为弱相关作用。

（3）区域自然增长情景中未来雄安新区建设用地继续扩张，湖泊破碎化加剧；生态环境保护情景中未来新区退耕还林、还湖成效显著；城市快速发展情景中未来新区城市化进程加快，建设用地明显扩张；国家总体规划情景中2035年新区北城南淀格局将初步形成。不同情景下雄安新区的生态系统服务差异显著，盲目追求城市化建设，会严重破坏生态系统服务供需协调，而单纯实施生态环境保护，不发展经济，虽可以有效保护生态系统服务供给，但无法满足人们美好生活需求。只重视发展经济，或只强调生态保护都无法实现可持续发展。从维持雄安新区人口、经济、环境协调可持续性发展角度来看，国家规划情景有望实现《河北雄安新区规划纲要》中协调发展的建设定位，是未来土地利用管理的最优解。在未来区域发展中，应协调生态环境保护与城市建设间的冲突，控制开发强度，保障永久基本农田总量，强化生态保护，尤其是白洋淀地区的保护，建议将其水位控制在7.9-8.5米之间。

The State Council, in its official reply on the Hebei Xiong’an New Area master plan, stated that should closely center on the overall advancement of the overall layout for "economic, political, cultural, social, and ecological progress" and the coordinated advancement of the Four-Pronged Comprehensive Strategy, adhere to according priority to ecology and green development, optimize the protection pattern of national spatial development, build the Xiong’an New Area into a new urban area green and ecologically livable, set a national example in promoting high-quality development. Land is the main carrier of human production and life. Changes in land use can lead to structural changes in ecosystems that affect the supply and demand of their ecosystem services. The types of land use in Xiong’an New Area are complex and diverse, while meeting the needs of its economic and social development, ensuring the sustainable development of its land and resources has become one of the keys at present. Therefore, in order to promote the sustainable development of ecosystem services in Xiong’an New area, it is of great scientific significance to deeply study the characteristics of land use change and the change of supply and demand of ecosystem services. At the same time, Xiong'an New Area, as the non-capital function of Beijing, integrates the characteristic elements such as water, forest and lake in Beijing, and improves its land and space pattern, which is helpful to promote the scientific development of regional ecological civilization construction and ecosystem service, and also provides reference for the replication and popularization of sustainable land use planning and management in urban construction in the future.

Therefore, this paper takes Xiong'an New area as the research area, first based on ArcGIS and SPSS software to analyze the seven remote sensing images of Xiong'an New area from 1980 to 2015, uses mathematical statistics, spatial analysis and other methods to determine the characteristics of spatial and temporal changes of regional land use, and combines land use data, socio-economic data and meteorological data, using grey correlation analysis and principal component analysis methods to determine the main driving factors and driving mechanisms affecting land use change in Xiong'an New area. Based on the quantitative structure of land use and the matrix of ecosystem service supply and demand, the spatial visualization of ecosystem service supply and demand in Xiong'an New area is carried out, the supply capacity and demand intensity of ecosystem service in Xiong'an New area are quantified, and the trade-off and synergy between ecosystem services are identified by Person related methods. The final four scenarios of regional natural growth, ecological environment protection, rapid urban development and national master plan are set up. The CA-Markov model of IDRISI software is used to simulate and predict the changes of land use and ecosystem services in Xiong'an New area, and the future scientific management suggestions of Xiong'an New area are put forward.

Based on this, the main conclusions of this thesis are as follows:

 (1) Cultivated land is the main land use type in Xiong'an New Area, accounting for about 70% of the total area; the land use in Xiong' an New Area was in the period of development from 1980 to 2010, the land use degree was increasing and stabilized after 2010; the land use dynamic degree of Xiong'an New Area changed the most between 2005 and 2010, the comprehensive dynamic degree was 1.17%; the land use type transfer direction of Xiong' an New Area showed different characteristics in different periods from 1980 to 2015, from 1980 to 1990, 81.67% of the conversion to cultivated land, from 1990 to 1995, mainly to protect Baiyangdian ecology, water surface increased 129 km², from 1995 to 2000, construction land occupied cultivated land expanded 121 km², from 2000 to 2005, mainly for reclamation water compensation cultivated land, a total increase of 69 km² cultivated land, from 2005 to 2010, continued urbanization development, construction land increased 111 km², from 2010 to 2015, to the direction of ecological protection, returning farmland to 56 km².. The change of land use in Xiong'an New Area is influenced by the natural driving force and the social driving force; the rural workers, the total population at the end of the year, the average temperature and precipitation are the main driving factors; while the urbanization construction has promoted the economic development of Xiong' an New Area, it has brought about population growth, increased food and housing demand, constantly changing the land use type of Xiong'an New Area, and then promoting economic development.

  (2) The ecosystem service function of Xiong'an New Area has high spatial heterogeneity, Baiyangdian area of Anxin County is the surplus area of total ecosystem service, and the key urbanization area is concentrated in deficit area. Between 1980 and 2015, the supply capacity of ecosystem service in Xiong'an New Area showed a downward trend, and the demand intensity increased. At the level of 99% significance, the hot spot area of ecosystem service supply capacity in Xiong'an New area is concentrated in the area with water area as the main land use type, the cold spot is small, the demand hot spot area takes cultivated land as the main land use type, and the cold spot is around Baiyangdian area. At the 0.05 significant level, the demand intensity of ecosystem service in Xiong'an New Area was strongly coordinated, the supply service and regulation service were significantly synergistic in supply capacity, and the rest were all weakly correlated.

 (3) The future construction land of Xiong'an New Area continued to expand and the lake fragmentation intensified in the regional natural growth scenario, the urbanization process of the new area stagnated in the ecological environment protection scenario, and the effect of returning farmland to forest and lake was remarkable. Based on the corresponding ecosystem services in Xiong'an New Area under multiple scenarios, the future management suggestions of Xiong'an New Area are put forward. The results show that there are significant differences in ecosystem services in Xiong'an New Area under different scenarios, and the implementation of ecological environment protection can effectively protect ecosystem service supply, while urbanization construction will increase the demand intensity of ecosystem services while bringing economic development. From the point of view of maintaining the sustainability of ecosystem services in Xiong'an New area, the national planning scenario is the optimal solution of land use management in the future. In the future regional development, the conflict between ecological environment protection and urban construction should be coordinated, the development intensity should be controlled, the total amount of permanent basic farmland should be guaranteed, and ecological protection, especially in Baiyangdian area, should be strengthened. It is suggested to control its water level between 7.9-8.5 meters.