中文题名: | 农业政策对乌干达农业增长的影响 |
姓名: | |
保密级别: | 公开 |
论文语种: | 英文 |
学科代码: | 020105 |
学科专业: | |
学生类型: | 硕士 |
学位: | 经济学硕士 |
学位类型: | |
学位年度: | 2019 |
校区: | |
学院: | |
研究方向: | The World Economy |
第一导师姓名: | |
第一导师单位: | |
第二导师姓名: | |
提交日期: | 2019-06-26 |
答辩日期: | 2019-05-29 |
外文题名: | The Effect of Agriculture Policies on Agriculture Growth in Uganda. |
中文关键词: | Agriculture sector ; Agriculture Policies ; Agriculture Productivity. |
外文关键词: | Agriculture sector ; Agriculture Policies ; Agriculture Productivity. |
中文摘要: |
这项研究的目的是找出农业政策对农业的影响
1990 - 2017年期间乌干达的增长受到影响的大多数政策
农业实施。
农业政策文件,粮农组织,世界银行,国家的二手数据
使用了农业部和统计摘要。使用分析收集的数据
E-Views 8软件。使用的自变量来自主要目标和
旨在改变生产水平的这些农业政策的战略
研究显示,肥料消耗率(F),灌溉总面积(Irr),
农业就业(AE),农业研究与发展投资(RD),
获得农业信贷(AC)可以解释农业生产总值(GAP)
脉冲响应函数所示的消耗速率。相关性和OLS回归
结果表明(AC)和(F)对GAP有负面影响,这对于
回归结果。 (RD)和(Irr)对GAP有积极影响,但这对于微不足道而言是微不足道的
(IRR)。结果显示变量之间没有长期运行关系,因此未限制VAR模型
估计显示变量之间的关系。在差异和采取拉格之后
变量不一定会增加GAP,因为它们与AE,AC在5%水平上无关紧要
和F对GAP有负面影响,而RD和(Irr)有正面影响。
此外,所有变量不是联合或单独的格兰杰导致GAP。冲动
响应结果表明最初但之后的独立变量的轻微显着响应
大多数变量趋于稳定并对GAP产生消极影响。
六
总之,结果表明农业生产出现了小幅增长
通过一些变量,如(RD)和(Irr),而其他像肥料消费率(F),访问
信贷(AC)和农业就业(AE)正在减少它,这与它完全不同
各种文学。乌干达的农业增长还有其他几个影响它的因素
比政策。主要建议是政策制定者加强政策
肥料政策通过提供肥料补贴,增加对农业研究的投入
开发和确保增加获得信贷的机会,同时监控其使用情况
结果显示对生产的负面影响,因为它们是增加作物的关键
生产和克服粮食不安全。劳动力的边际生产力需要
通过更多农场培训和农场改良技术的使用得到改善。
未来的工作需要更多地分析国家灌溉政策和肥料政策
这些政策在实施后还不到10年。
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外文摘要: |
The purpose of this study was to find out the effect of Agricultural policies on Agricultural
Growth in Uganda during the time period of 1990-2017 when most policies that affected
agriculture where implemented.
Secondary data from agricultural policy documents, FAO, World bank, the country’s
Agricultural Ministry and Statistical Abstracts were used. The collected data was analyzed using
E-Views 8 software. The used independent variables were obtained from the major aims and
strategies of these Agricultural policies that aim at changing production levels
The study revealed that Fertilizer consumption rate (F), Total area equipped for irrigation (Irr),
Employment in Agriculture (AE), Investment in Agricultural Research and Development (RD),
Access to agriculture Credit (AC) can explain Gross Agricultural Production (GAP) however at
an extinctive rate as shown by the impulse response function. Correlation and OLS regression
results show that (AC) and (F) have a negative impact on GAP and this is significant for
regression results. (RD) and (Irr) have a positive impact on GAP however this is insignificant for
(Irr). Results show no long run relationship among variables and hence Un restricted VAR model
was estimated to show the relationship among variables. After differencing and taking Lags all
variables do not necessarily increase GAP since they are insignificant at 5% level with AE, AC
and F have a negative effect on GAP while RD and (Irr) have a positive effect.
Furthermore, all variables do not jointly or individually granger cause GAP. The impulse
response result indicates a slight significant response of independent variables initially but after
most variables trend to be stable and have an extinctive effect to GAP.
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In conclusion, results show that there has been a slight increase in Agriculture production caused
by some variables like (RD) and (Irr), while others like Fertilizer consumption rate (F), Access to
Credit (AC) and Employment in Agriculture (AE) are reducing it which is quite different from
various literatures. Uganda’s agricultural growth has other several factors influencing it greatly
than policies. The main recommendation is for the policy makers to strengthen Policies like
Fertilizer Policy through providing fertilizer subsidies, more investment in Agriculture Research
& development and ensuring increased Access to credit while monitoring it’s usage despite its
negative effect on production as shown by the results as they are key to increasing crop
production and overcoming food insecurity. The marginal productivity of labour needs to be
improved through more farm trainings and usage of farm improved technology.
Future work needs to analyze more the National Irrigation policy and Fertilizer Policy since
these policies are still less than 10 years after implementation.
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参考文献总数: | 71 |
馆藏号: | 硕020105/19012 |
开放日期: | 2020-07-09 |