近年来我国极端气象灾害频繁发生，给人们生命财产和经济社会发展造成了重大影响。一直以来，在极端气象灾害管理中主要关注人员伤亡和直接经济损失，而忽略灾害对区域经济的影响。实际上在现代高度发展的国民经济体系中，由于产业部门之间的高度依赖性，极端气象灾害冲击所造成的间接经济损失非常巨大。有关研究表明，随着重大自然灾害的直接经济损失增大，造成的间接经济损失呈非线性关系增加，而且影响的程度更大、范围更广、时间更长。所以，加强极端气象灾害间接经济影响评估，对于提高灾害应急管理能力显得更加重要。间接经济损失是灾害系统与经济系统共同作用的结果，由于其产生的隐蔽性和复杂性，评估难度非常大。本文从灾害间接经济损失产生的原因出发，借助研究经济问题的经典理论—一般均衡理论，深刻剖析灾害系统对经济系统的作用机理、作用路径以及灾害冲击经济系统的计算方法。在理论研究的基础上，选择投入产出模型和可计算一般均衡模型相结合的方式进行间接经济损失评估。投入产出分析主要引进Haimes构建的非正常投入产出模型(IIM)。一般均衡分析则以湖南省为研究对象，依据可计算一般均衡模型的基本原理和结构以及湖南社会核算矩阵构(SAM)，构建了湖南可计算一般均衡模型(HNCGE)。湖南社会核算矩阵(SAM)根据湖南2007年湖南省投入产出表和其他宏观经济数据建立的。为了推动评估实践，本文选择了湖南2008年低温雨雪冰冻灾害作为案例，采用IIM和HNCGE评估了灾害中电力系统和交通系统破坏所造成的间接经济影响，并对两种模型评估结果进行对比分析。(1) 灾害系统作为外生变量冲击经济循环过程，其影响的路径包括生产环节传导过程、消费环节传导过程、价格传导环节等。(2) 灾害间接经济损失评估方法可以采取投入产出模型，也可以采用可计算一般均衡模型，其中投入产出模型主要适用于非常短的时间灾害过程，一般均衡模型适用较长时间的灾害过程。(3) 利用IIM模型评估，低温雨雪冰冻灾害中导致电力供应下降和交通运输能力下降，影响到其他产业部门的总产出，其中影响程度最重的产业部门主要是化学工业，耐用品制造业，建筑业，其他采矿业，设备制造业等，灾害发生的3个月时间总的间接经济损失达到120多亿元。(4) 利用HNCGE模型评估，低温雨雪冰冻灾害导致电力系统和交通系统破坏对整个经济系统的影响是全方位的，影响到各产业部门的总产出、价格、消费和贸易，灾害发生的3个月内总的间接经济损失达到68亿多元，影响比较严重的产业部门主要是采矿业、制造业、纺织业等。(5) 投入产出模型和可计算一般均衡模型评估结果具有一定差异性，主要表现在评估结果大小上，投入产出模型评估结果要大一些，是间接经济损失的上限值，可计算一般均衡模型的评估结果要小一些，是间接经济损失的下限值。从以上的分析结果，可以得出以下结论：(1) 在极端气象灾害中，间接经济损失是灾害后果的重要组成部分；(2) 把投入产出模型和可计算一般均衡模型两种方法相结合，能够比较客观地界定灾害间接经济损失范围；(3) 在极端气象灾害应急管理中，可以充分利用间接经济损失评估结果合理分配抗灾救灾资源，最大限度减少间接经济损失。

It often has occurred extreme weather disasters in our country recent years, caused serious impact to people's lives and property and significant economic losses. However, we have focused on casualties and direct economic losses in extreme weather disaster, while ignoring the regional indirect economic losses in the disaster research. In fact, the indirect economic losses caused by natural disasters are very enormous because of strong intra- and interdependencies among industries in the modern economic system. Previous studies show that indirect economic losses increase more rapidly with non-linear relationship while the direct economic losses caused by the extreme natural disasters increase. In addition, the indirect losses are heavier, and have a longer duration. Therefore, it is more important to appraise indirect economic losses for improving natural disasters emergency management.Indirect economic loss is the result of the interaction between natural disaster system and economic system. Although this, disaster indirect economic losses assessment is very difficult because of indirect economic losses’ potential and complexity. The authors has analyzed the mechanism and pathway between climate disaster and economy system, and discussed the selecting principle of research model. In the light of advantadge and limitation of various models, the authors integrated input-output (IO) into computable general equilibrium model (CGE). On the basis of Hunan province IO table in 2007 and other economic data, the authors create social accounting matrix (SAM). Hunan computable equilibrium model (HNCGE) is constructed by taking advantage of CGE’s general principle and SAM of Hunan province. Then, the authors assess the indirect economic losses due to electricity outrage and traffic disruption caused by Hunan Province Cryogenic Freezing Rain and Snow Disaster in 2008 by means of inoperability input-output model (IIM) and HNCGE. The results are as follows:Firstly, Disaster system, as an exogenous variable, shocks economy entities. The impact node on economy system includes three aspects: the behavior of economic entities, the initial and intermediate inputs respectively. Indirect economic losses resulted from production, consumption, and price transmission.Secondly, both input-output model and Computable general equilibrium model can be used to evaluate the natural disaster indirect economic losses, however, the two methods have their own application scope. Generally, the input-output model is applied to the shorter time scale, while the computable general equilibrium model to the longer time scale.Thirdly, The total indirect economic losses reached 12 billion yuan caused by electricity supply and transport capacity dropped down using Inoperability Input-Output Model. The heaviest suffered industries are mainly the chemical industry industrial sector, durable goods manufacturing, construction, non-coal-gas mining, equipment manufacturing.Fourthly, according to computable general equilibrium model, the indirect economic impact is comprehensive, including the output of industry sectors, prices, consumption and trade. The total indirect economic losses reached more than 6.8 billion yuan. Mining, manufacturing, and textiles are the serious suffered industries.The following conclusions can be drawn from the above analysis:In the first place, the indirect economic losses have a larger proportion in the total losses of extreme weather disaster.In the second place, combination of input-output model and computable general equilibrium model can objectively distinguish interval of disaster indirect economic losses.Lastly, we can employ the assessment of disaster indirect economic losses to allocate the relief resources optimally In extreme weather disasters emergency management.