自20世纪70年代末以来，改革开放的国策已推行四十余年。伴随时间推移，改革开放不断深入，呈现纵深化发展的趋势，广大民营企业在这个过程中也随之迅猛发展，成为中国特色社会主义市场经济发展的一个重要组成部分，是中国经济建设的推动力和“助推器”。对于民营企业，习主席也不吝赞美之词，他曾多次阐述民营企业对我国的重要性，指出民营企业的发展在扩大税收、提升GDP、科技成果涌现、提供就业岗位、吸纳劳动人口等领域功勋卓著。与此同时，“三农”问题也得到了中共中央、国务院的关切，农业的发展问题受到了我国数以亿计农业人口的高度关注。在新常态下，我国更加重视经济发展的质量，把高质量发展摆在了第一位，对重大风险的预防和化解、严防逾越系统性金融风险的底线等方面作出了明确的规定。但是，一些学者通过研究发现大部分企业的发展态势严峻，特别是民营企业的融资问题比较明显，以牧原股份为代表的深耕畜牧业、养殖业的农业企业存在数额惊人的短贷长投行为。短贷长投属于一种高风险的经济行为，它令公司的债务期限与资产期限不匹配，很有可能加大公司的财务风险，并传递至其背后的金融市场中，加大了系统性风险的产生概率，这对经济高质量发展、消除经济发展中的隐患和风险都是不利的，亦无助于农业企业的健康发展。

在以上背景下，本文拟以民营上市企业牧原股份为例，借助期限匹配、优序融资、信贷歧视等相关理论，对该公司的短贷长投行为进行分析，采用企业财务指标识别和短贷长投模型两种途径来判别牧原股份短贷长投的状况存在与否，明确牧原股份当前的确有短贷长投的情况。确定牧原股份存在短贷长投后，再梳理牧原股份采取短贷长投这种激进的投融资策略背后的主要原因。结果表明，减少融资成本、受到融资约束、决策管理局限和缺少抵押物等因素导致了牧原股份“短贷长投”。在此基础上，本文运用杠杆分析、偿债能力指标、Z计分模型等模型指标对牧原股份短贷长投所带来的经营风险、融资风险、偿债风险和整体财务风险进行了深入的分析。文章最后站在牧原自身的角度，为减少“短贷长投”给企业造成的风险，还有由此产生的经济和社会损失提出了针对性的建议。研究为农牧产业相关企业的投融资行为提供了借鉴，也有助于营造一个良性的经济环境。

Since the late 1970s, the national policy of reform and opening up has been implemented for more than 40 years. With the passage of time, the deepening of reform and opening up has shown a trend of vertical deepening development. Private enterprises have also developed rapidly in this process, becoming an important component of the development of the socialist market economy with Chinese characteristics, and a driving force and "booster" of China's economic construction.   At the same time, the issues of agriculture, rural areas, and farmers have also received attention from the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council, and the development of agriculture has received high attention from hundreds of millions of agricultural populations in China. Under the new normal, China attaches greater importance to the quality of economic development and prioritizes high-quality development. Clear regulations have been made for the prevention and resolution of major risks, as well as strict prevention of crossing the bottom line of systemic financial risks. However, some scholars have found through research that the development trend of most enterprises is severe, especially the financing problems of private enterprises are more obvious. Agricultural enterprises represented by Muyuan Shares, which deeply cultivate animal husbandry and animal husbandry, have an astonishing amount of short-term loans and long-term investment behavior. Short term loans and long-term investments belong to a high-risk economic behavior, which causes a mismatch between a company's debt maturity and asset maturity, which is likely to increase the company's financial risk and transmit it to the underlying financial market, increasing the probability of systemic risk. This is not conducive to high-quality economic development, eliminating hidden dangers and risks in economic development, and is also not conducive to the healthy development of agricultural enterprises.

In the above context, this article intends to take the private listed enterprise Muyuan Co., Ltd. as an example, and use relevant theories such as term matching, priority financing, and credit discrimination to analyze the company's short-term loan and long-term investment behavior. Two approaches, namely enterprise financial indicator identification and short-term loan and long-term investment model, are used to determine the existence of the situation of short-term loan and long-term investment in Muyuan Co., Ltd., and to clarify that there is indeed a situation of short-term loan and long-term investment in Muyuan Co., Ltd. After confirming the existence of short-term loans and long-term investments in Muyuan Shares, the main reasons behind its aggressive investment and financing strategy of short-term loans and long-term investments will be sorted out. The results indicate that factors such as reducing financing costs, being constrained by financing, limited decision-making management, and lack of collateral have led to the "short-term loan and long-term investment" of Muyuan Shares. On this basis, this article uses model indicators such as leverage analysis, debt repayment ability indicators, and Z-score model to conduct in-depth analysis of the operational risks, financing risks, debt repayment risks, and overall financial risks brought by the short-term loans and long-term investments of Muyuan Shares. At the end of the article, from the perspectives of Muyuan itself, regulatory agencies, and financial institutions, targeted policies and suggestions are proposed to reduce the risks caused by "short-term loans and long-term investments" to enterprises, as well as the economic and social losses caused by them. The study provides reference for the investment and financing behavior of agricultural and animal husbandry industry related enterprises, and also helps relevant departments to supervise and manage the "short-term loans and long-term investments" behavior, creating a positive economic environment.