水资源作为区域经济发展的短板，成为各个部门竞争的关键自然资源。在我国水资源严重缺乏、水资源承载压力巨大的现状和“三条红线”严格限制的水资源管理的背景下，全国各城市将根据自身的水资源特点，调整其产业结构来满足当地水资源量，势必引起区域供需用水结构的变化，经济结构的调整迫使用水结构的优化，因此对水资源供需动态研究有着重要意义。本研究借鉴国内外相关研究成果，以DPSIR概念框架构建指标体系，以水资源供需理论及系统动力学为基础，借鉴经济社会各用水部门的供用水机理，开发了一个普适性模型——水资源供需动态模型，此模型不需要大量的资料，且能够描述未来供需结构变化的趋势。将全国作为研究案例，2010年为基准年，通过2001-2010年的历史数据校核模型，设定多种不同的情景模式，来研究未来20年的经济社会发展的供需水要求，研究成果及结论主要包含以下几个方面：（1）本文构建的水资源供需动态的普适性模型，能够综合地反映经济社会发展与水资源开发利用间的各因素之间的相互关系和相互作用，模拟经济社会不同产业结构变化情景下需水变化，及时反映未来社会的发展趋势，通过相应的宏观政策的调整和反馈，可以更好的促进经济社会的发展。（2）通过比较分析模型预测不同设置情景下的经济社会发展指标，如按照情景一历史延伸趋势下的快速发展，必然导致自然资源的枯竭，可见政府的宏观政策的调控必不可少，尤其是宏观政策的综合调控，从而保证经济社会有序健康的发展，减少发生经济危机的可能性，从而实现经济社会的可持续发展。（3）在用水总量控制红线下，通过综合宏观政策的调控，控制人口，城镇化进程，转变经济增长方式，提高农业节水技术等各项措施，重视需水的管理，统筹安排生活、农业、工业和生态四方面的用水，可以使得经济社会在2030年的用水总量控制指标下可持续发展。（4）通过分析，参政类似相关规划和政策，推荐优化的供需预测方案，为决策人员提供参考的依据和科学支持。通过限制经济过度增长，农业节水，统筹规划，严格管理，从而逐步解决全国水资源供需矛盾，促进全国水资源合理配置。

Water as a short board of regional economic development, it has become a key natural resources competed by each department. Under the background of serious lack of water resources, the huge pressure of water resources bearing and the strict water resources management of "three red line", the cities all over the country will adjust their industrial structure to meet the limit of local water resources according to their own characteristics. It certainly will cause the change of the regional water supply and demand structure. The adjustment of economic structure will force water structure to optimize. So the dynamics research of water supply and demand has very important significance.Referencing the relevant research results of domestic and international, this study developed a universal model, water supply and demand dynamic model, with concept of DPSIR framework to build index system, based on the theory and system dynamics of water supply and demand and the relationship of water consumption departments on the economic and social. This model can describe the trend of supply and demand structure change in the future without a lot of data. This study use China as a case .the base year is 2010 year. The model checked by the historical data of 2001-2010 year. It set a variety of different scenarios model to study the water supply and demand of future economic and social development in 20 years. The main results and conclusions are as follows:(1) This study builds the universality of the water supply and demand dynamic model. It can comprehensively reflect the relationship and interaction between various factors between the development of economic and the development and utilization of water resources. It can simulates water demand under the different industry structure change situation and timely reflects the development trend of the future society. Through the corresponding macro policy adjustment and feedback, it can better promote the development of economy and society.(2) Through the comparative analysis of models to predict different setting situation, such as the situation of history extending trend has a rapid development, inevitably lead to the depletion of natural resources, so the macro policy of the government regulation is necessary, especially the macro policy of comprehensive control. It ensures orderly and healthy development of economic society and reduces the possibility of economic crisis, so as to accomplish sustainable economic and social development.(3) Through the comprehensive regulation of macro policies to control population, urbanization process, the transformation of the mode of economic growth and improving agricultural water-saving technical measures, such as on the management of water requirement and overall arrangement four sorts of water use in life, agriculture, industry and ecological, all those can make the economic and social have a sustainable development under the water amount control indicators in 2030 year.(4) Through similar related plans and policies, recommend one optimization scheme of water supply and demand prediction. It will provide reference and scientific support to help decision makers of government and political affairs. By limiting excessive growth, agricultural water-saving, overall planning, strict management, so as to gradually solve the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources, and promote the reasonable allocation of water resources throughout the country.