近年来将渤海海冰作为淡水资源加以开发利用，为解决我国北方地区淡水短缺问题提供新的淡水资源已成为资源开发利用领域研究的新动向之一。然而，20世纪末中国气候出现的明显变暖现象使气候变暖成为众多科学家公认的事实,在这种气候背景下，渤海冬季气温是否有逐年升高的趋势，渤海海冰是否会逐年减少，将渤海海冰作为淡水资源加以开发利用的研究是否还有必要继续进行等问题丞待解决；另一方面，海冰开采对开采区域的天气及区域气候是否造成影响，影响程度如何，至今尚不清楚。因此，本文首先分析了环辽东湾地区冬季平均气温与渤海海冰面积的相关关系，利用环辽东湾地区冬季平均气温年变化规律推得渤海海冰面积的年变化规律，并对产生这种年变化规律的影响因素进行了初步分析，结论如下：（1） 在气候周期和El Nino/La Nina事件等主要自然因素影响下，1960-2007年间48a环辽东湾地区冬季平均气温年变化呈现明显的两段分布：1989-2007年间19a环辽东湾地区冬季平均气温较1960-1988年间29a升高1℃以上。其中，1989-2007年间19a环辽东湾地区冬季平均气温的年变化趋势较为缓和，冬季增温现象不明显。根据极地和高纬地区的日食与厄尔尼诺有很好的对应关系，预测出2007/2008年冬季渤海为冰情偏重年；2008/2009年冬季渤海为冰情偏轻年。经验证，2007/2008年冬季渤海冰情预测结果与实际基本相符。（2） 1960-2007年间48a渤海海水结冰日数年变化呈现明显的两段分布：1989-2007年间19a渤海海水平均结冰日数较1960-1988年间29a减少18d。由此推得1960-1988年间29a冬季渤海海冰面积大于1989-2007年间19a冬季渤海海冰面积。（3） 1960-2007年间48a渤海海水结冰初始日年变化趋势较为平缓，而结冰终止日的年变化呈两段分布：1989-2007年间19a平均结冰终止日较1960-1988年间29a提前14天左右。1960-1988年间29a和1989-2007年间19a渤海海冰面积达到最大值的平均日期分别为2月22日和2月8日。在以上结论的基础上，本文利用2005年1月15日至2月14日NCEP再分析资料和MODIS卫星反演海冰分布资料及中尺度大气模式POLAR MM5对2005年冬季渤海区域进行气候模拟。根据MODIS卫星反演海冰资料，对模式运行区域下垫面的渤海海冰进行不同方案的开采，模拟其对渤海及周边地区冬季气候的影响，得到如下主要结论：（1） 在模式能力验证中，中尺度大气模式POLAR MM5模拟的辽宁省冬季30天平均温度场和30天平均海平面气压场与实况分布型大致相似，模拟能力较高。而对辽宁省冬季30天平均风速和30天平均24h降水量场的模拟结果不理想。（2） 分别将MODIS卫星反演的海冰面积分布数据和来自初始场的SST数据作为模式POLAR MM5的下边界条件代入模式进行渤海及周边地区的气候模拟，结果表明：采用SST数据的控制试验Ⅰ与采用MODIS卫星反演的海冰面积分布数据的控制试验Ⅱ除对辽东湾的气温模拟结果差异较明显外，其余结果基本一致。（3） 将MODIS卫星反演海冰分布数据作为模式POLAR MM5的下边界条件，通过改变下垫面海冰分布状况，模拟冬季部分开采和极端开采海冰后，渤海及周边地区的气候变化，结果表明：即使采取极端开采方案取走所有海冰，也只对开采区域和大连少部分地区冬季气候有所影响，而对我国其他邻海省份的气候环境没有明显的影响。

In recent years, Exploiting and using Bohai Sea ice to alleciate the fresh water shortage in the North of China has become one of the new aspects in resources’ studying field. However, the Climate Warming has been accepted by most scientists because of the warm climate in China in the end of the 20th century. In such a climate background, whether there is a yearly temperature rising trend in Bohai Sea in winter, whether the Bohai sea ice will gradually reduce, and whether exploiting and using the Bohai sea ice as fresh water resources is also necessary to continue to carry out, such issues need to be resolved urgently; On the other hand, that whether Bohai Sea ice’s exploitation will impact exploiting area’s weather or climate, and the impact of what so far is not clear until now.In this work, the correlativity between the average winter temperature of the region around Liaodong Gulf and ice area in Bohai Sea has been analyzed first. In order to find the annual change rule of ice area in Bohai Sea, the average winter temperature of the areas around Liaodong Gulf and its influencing factors have been analyzed too. The conclusion is as follows:（1） Under the influence of natural factors which including the climate cycle and El Nino/La Nina events basically，the annual change of average temperature of the areas around Liaodong Gulf in winter (1960-2007) can be divided into two periods: the average temperature of the after-period(1989-2007) is over 1℃ higher than that of the fore-period(1960-1988), and the climate warming is not obvious in the period of 1989-2007. According to the perfect relativity between solar eclipse in higher-latitude and El Nino, we can predict that it’ll be serious ice year in 2007/2008 and light ice year in 2008/2009. After validating, the prediction of ice condition of 2007/2008 is up to the fact.（2） The annual change of glacial days of Bohai Sea in winter (1960-2007) can be divided into two periods: the average days of the after-period(1989-2007) is 18d lesser than that of the fore-period(1960-1988).As a result, we can guess that the Bohai sea ice acreage of the fore-period(1960-1988)) might be bigger than that of the after-period(1989-2007).（3） The glacial starting date’s annual change of Bohai Sea in winter (1960-2007) is gently, but the glacial ending date’s annual change of Bohai Sea in winter (1960-2007) can be divided into two periods: the average glacial ending date of the after-period(1989-2007) is 14d earlier than that of the fore-period(1960-1988). So the average dates of biggest acreage of Bohai sea ice of the fore-period(1960-1988) and the after-period(1989-2007) might be at Feb. 22nd and Feb.8th respectively.Based on the above, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets and remotely sensed data of Bohai Sea ice from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) during the period of 2005/01/15-2005/02/14 were combined with Polar Mesoscale Model 5(POLAR MM5) to simulate the climate over Bohai Sea in winter. POLAR MM5 simulated climate impact in Bohai Sea caused by different exploiting project of sea ice using MODIS data. The analysis results express:（1） In verification of model’s simulated ability, the distribution of the air temperature field and the sea level pressure field simulated by MM5 are similar with actual condition, but the simulated wind field and 24h-precipitation field are not satisfying.（2） Comparing the analysis results of controlled-testⅠ(using SST)with controlled-testⅡ(using MODIS remotely sensed data) shows that except the simulation results of the temperature difference more obvious, the others are basically the same.（3） Using mesoscale Model 5(MM5V3.7-POLAR) , introducing remotely sensed data of sea ice in Bohai Sea from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) to take the lower boundary, climate change over Bohai Sea and its peripheral areas has been simulated through changing the proportion of sea ice in Bohai Sea in winter. The analysis results express: even if using extreme exploiting plan to take all of sea ice, climate change takes place mainly over exploiting area and few area of Dalian in winter, there is little influence on climate over other coastal provinces.