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中文题名:

 多边商务谈判均衡策略的动态博弈分析    

姓名:

 高齐    

保密级别:

 公开    

学科代码:

 020206    

学科专业:

 国际贸易学    

学生类型:

 硕士    

学位:

 经济学硕士    

学位年度:

 2007    

校区:

 北京校区培养    

学院:

 经济与工商管理学院    

研究方向:

 国际贸易学    

第一导师姓名:

 张永林    

第一导师单位:

 北京师范大学    

提交日期:

 2007-06-10    

答辩日期:

 2007-06-02    

外文题名:

 THE DYNAMIC GAME THEORY ANALYSIS OF EQUILLIBRIUM STRATEGIES OF MULTILATERAL BUSSINESS NEGOTIATION    

中文关键词:

 博弈论 ; 商务谈判 ; 合作博弈 ; 非合作博弈 ; 均衡解    

中文摘要:
在和平与发展的时代主题以及经济全球化的大趋势下,世界各国之间的经济贸易合作已经越来越频繁和紧密。而各个国家之间政治、经济和传统文化背景的不同,以及合作中参与者目标的差异使得国际贸易谈判活动成为一种必需。谈判理论虽然自古就有,在我国更是可以追溯到春秋战国时期,但真正成熟的现代谈判理论是在进入工业文明后的西方世界产生。发展到今天,从二分法到立场谈判法,从尼尔龙伯格的谈判需求理论到费希尔的原则谈判理论,整个谈判理论体系已经日趋完善和成熟。而且这些理论的应用也越来越广泛,一个国家的企业或经济团体要想在和对手的谈判中占得先机并最终获得利益,就一定要深谙各种谈判理论与技巧。近年来,博弈论作为一种新兴的研究工具,已经在很多研究领域表现出巨大的优势和潜力。于是各种结合博弈论对国际贸易谈判问题进行探讨的理论和观点也应运而生,人们在研究中发现,博弈论对于分析一个有两方或多方参与的集合的竞争与决策有着得天独厚的优势。而贸易谈判则是一种典型的多方参与的决策活动,谈判理论中有很多二分法、复杂谈判等理论都可以在博弈论中找到对应的模型;反过来,博弈论中的纳什均衡、核等概念也可以应用于谈判中。因此使用博弈论来对贸易谈判进行深入分析,对于规范和发展贸易谈判理论是比较有意义的。本文旨在以国际贸易谈判实际过程为基础,将贸易谈判的整个过程置于博弈论的框架下进行研究。根据实际情况与研究的需要,我们将分别建立双方参与和多方参与的国际贸易谈判模型,并通过各种假设条件的逐步放松与改变,先后在非合作博弈和合作博弈的框架下进行分析,试图找到所建模型的均衡解,并探讨将该模型的均衡解及结论应用到实际的国际贸易谈判活动中的可能与意义。本文的创新点在于,相对于普遍的将非合作博弈方法应用于国际贸易谈判的研究理论,引入了合作博弈,将国际贸易谈判的的过程置入其框架下进行研究,得出了合作博弈更适合国际贸易谈判的结论。并通过模型的建立,模拟谈判过程,找到了所建模型的均衡解。
外文摘要:
Under the theme of peace and development and in the process of globalization, business and commercial cooperation grow to be more frequent and much closer across countries in the world. Yet the variety and diversification of politics, economics and culture across countries and the different and diverse objectives of the cooperative parties make negotiation indispensable in international trade.The theory of negotiation enjoys a long history, dated back to ChunQiu(spring and autum) Period and Warring States Time in China, yet matured modern theory of negotiation was developed in the process of industrialization in the West. Now, from dichotomy to the law of standpoint negotiation, from Nelonberg’s negotiation demand theory to Fisher’s theory of principle negotiation, the system of negotiation theories getting more mature and complete and extensive used as well. A company or a business group needs master various negotiation theories and exercise all the tricks to have advantage in the negotiation and harvest extra gains in the end.Recently game theory, a newly developed research vehicle has put up tremendous advantage and potential in many research fields. Consequently, a lot of initiatives have been taken to apply game theory in international trade negotiation. They found in research game theory possesses dominant advantage in the analysis of competitions and decision-makings involving two or more parties. Nevertheless international trade negotiations are particular type of multi-player decision-making process, several negotiation theories like dichotomy, complicacy negotiation, etc. can find their match in game theory. In contrast, Nash equilibrium concept and core concept etc. in game theory can also be applied to international trade negations. So it is of great significance for the norm and development of negotiation theories to apply game theory to international trade negotiation analysis.This paper puts analysis of process of international negotiation in the framework of game theory taking the real international negotiation process as a basis. According to the analysis and real conditions, models of two-player and multi-player of international trade have been established. By relaxing and changing certain assumptions, the author tries to solve all the equilibriums of the models both in the domain of non-cooperative games and cooperative games in addition to explore the potential and significance of applying the solutions to the real process of international trade negotiations.
参考文献总数:

 29    

馆藏号:

 硕020206/0707    

开放日期:

 2007-06-10    

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