近年来我国出生率一路下跌，尽管国家相继出台相应政策，例如全面开放二胎，三胎等政策，虽然取得一定成效，但是并没有扭转出生率下跌的趋势，人口出生率低下会对国家发展造成长远的影响，中部六省总人口数占全国人口约四分之一，且具有重要发展战略意义，探究其出生率下跌的原因一定程度上有助于把控人口数量未来变化方向，延缓社会老龄化程度的加重。

在介绍人口出生率与总和生育率的区别与特点的基础上，选择人口出生率作为因变量，将目光聚焦到中部六省各地级市，选取2009-2019年中部六省各地级市面板数据，探究受教育程度，城镇化率，房价，老年抚养比，居民收入水平等变量与人口出生率的关系。在统计方法的选择上，使用固定效应模型以及系统GMM估计方法对中部六省地级市进行整体分析，得出以下结论：住宅商品房价格对中部六省出生率有显著的抑制作用，受教育程度也与出生率呈反方向变动，生育政策虚拟变量也十分显著，且“全面二胎”政策效果更好；将中部六省以省份进行分组研究，采用长面板的面板校正标准误的估计方法得出：受教育程度对大部分省的人口出生率有显著负面影响，其中对湖北省的影响最大，房价依然对大部分省人口出生率有显著的抑制作用，但是对安徽省来说房价却与人口出生率同向变动；将省会城市与非省会城市进行对比，由于城市数较少，采用全面FGLS法对扰动项进行处理并估计模型，发现对于省会城市来说，住宅商品房的价格、受教育程度对人口出生率没有显著影响，城镇化率对人口出生率的提升有显著的正向作用，而在剔除省会城市的影响后的非省会城市回归结果基本不变，房价对出生率的抑制作用依然显著。

最后由中部六省的分析结果本文提出几点建议：1.调控房价稳中有降，促进房地产业健康发展。我国人均收入不断上升，居民在生育方面受到经济压力的影响逐渐变小，但是房价的上升无疑削弱了这种积极作用，继续明确落实房住不炒，让房价回归房屋居住价值。2.大力发展经济，促进生产力的再提高。经济因素是影响居民生育意愿的主要因素之一，把握“科学技术是第一生产力”，在完善分配机制的基础上，继续将“蛋糕”做大。3.适度发放生育补助，构建“生育友好型”社会。政府应当继续推行鼓励生育的政策与完善相应的配套措施，适当借鉴周围低生育率国家的生育补贴政策，提升家庭生育意愿。4.推进老年人口再就业，减轻劳动人口抚养负担。发掘老年人自身优势和潜能，增加收入，促进消费，减轻家庭养育压力。

In recent years, China's birth rate has been falling all the way. Although the country has successively introduced corresponding policies, such as the comprehensive opening up of two-child, third-child and other policies, although certain results have been achieved, it has not reversed the downward trend of birth rate. The low birth rate will have a long-term impact on the country's development. The total population of the six central provinces accounts for about a quarter of the national population, and has important strategic significance for development. To some extent, exploring the reasons for the decline in the birth rate will help to control the future direction of population changes and delay the aggravation of social aging. .

On the basis of introducing the differences and characteristics of the birth rate and the total fertility rate, the birth rate is selected as the dependent variable, and the focus is on the prefecture-level cities in the six central provinces. The relationship between variables such as education level, urbanization rate, housing price, old-age dependency ratio, and resident income level and the population birth rate. In the selection of statistical methods, the fixed effect model and the systematic GMM estimation method are used to conduct an overall analysis of the prefecture-level cities in the six central provinces. It changes in the opposite direction to the birth rate, the dummy variable of the fertility policy is also very significant, and the "universal two-child" policy is more effective. The six central provinces are grouped into provinces, and the long-panel panel correction standard error estimation method is used to obtain: The education level has a significant negative impact on the birth rate of most provinces, of which Hubei Province has the greatest impact. Housing prices still have a significant inhibitory effect on the birth rate of most provinces, but for Anhui Province, housing prices are in the same direction as the birth rate. Changes; comparing provincial capital cities with non-provincial capital cities, due to the small number of cities, the comprehensive FGLS method is used to process the disturbance term and estimate the model. The urbanization rate has a significant positive effect on the increase of the birth rate, while the regression results of non-provincial capital cities after excluding the influence of the provincial capital city are basically unchanged, and the inhibitory effect of housing prices on the birth rate is still significant.

Finally, based on the analysis results of the six central provinces, this paper puts forward some suggestions: 1. Regulate the stability of housing prices and promote the healthy development of the real estate industry. my country's per capita income continues to rise, and residents are gradually less affected by economic pressure in terms of fertility. However, the rise in housing prices has undoubtedly weakened this positive effect. We will continue to make it clear that housing is not for speculation, so that housing prices return to the value of housing. 2. Vigorously develop the economy and promote the further improvement of productivity. Economic factors are one of the main factors affecting residents' willingness to give birth. Grasping that "science and technology are the primary productive forces", on the basis of improving the distribution mechanism, continue to expand the "cake". 3. Appropriately distribute maternity subsidies to build a "birth-friendly" society. The government should continue to implement policies to encourage fertility and improve the corresponding supporting measures, and appropriately learn from the fertility subsidy policies of surrounding countries with low fertility rates, so as to increase the willingness of families to bear children. 4. Promote the re-employment of the elderly population and reduce the burden of support for the working population. Explore the advantages and potential of the elderly, increase income, promote consumption, and reduce the pressure of family parenting.