长期以来，我国城乡二元体制约束和“重城轻乡”战略带来了城乡发展不平衡、乡村发展不充分的问题，成为新时期城乡融合发展和乡村振兴面临的重大障碍。当前我国乡村衰落问题日益凸显，尤其是生活空间无限扩张、生产空间利用低效、生态环境污染等日趋突出，生产、生活、生态“三生”空间冲突加剧。本研究以快速城镇化的京津冀大都市区为研究区，立足于国家乡村振兴和京津冀一体化发展战略，研究揭示乡村“三生”空间格局、过程与机理，并通过多情景模拟探讨未来乡村地域空间优化布局，探索乡村振兴与可持续发展发展的典型地域模式，为我国乡村振兴和京津冀协同发展等战略落地及国土空间规划实施提供科学指导。主要取得以下结果和进展：

（1）从乡村地域空间载体“土地”视角出发，基于土地利用类型的重分类开展“三生”空间的时空“量”变特征。整体上看，1985-2018年，京津冀地区生活空间快速扩张、生产空间日趋退缩、生态用地保持相对稳定，且生活用地面积增加量主要来源于农业生产用地。具体而言，耕地向建设用地的非农化转移是各研究时段土地转移的最主要模式，建设用地的扩张和耕地的流失在空间上主要发生在北京、天津、石家庄等城市核心区的外围。

（2）京津冀地区土地利用变化受到自然条件、可达性和社会经济发展水平三大方面的共同影响；建设用地扩张的主要影响因素为到最近市/县中心距离和到最近高速公路距离，应注意规避“贴边”和“沿线”发展带来的负面效应；耕地流失的主要影响因素为坡度、到最近市/县中心距离和到最近高速公路距离，地形适宜、区位和交通条件好的地区的耕地保护形势尤为严峻。

（3）通过构建乡村多功能指标体系探究乡村“三生”的耦合协调等“质”变特征。京津冀乡村三生功能耦合协调的时空差异特征明显，耦合度呈现“西北高、东南低”的空间格局特征，时间尺度上整体上变化不大，耦合度演进曲线均呈现“S”型。耦合协调度的中度协调区由“东北-西南”条带逐渐向西北拓展为中度协调片区，东南地区主要为中度失调区，基本协调区则围绕着中度协调片区分布；时间尺度上呈现出由中度失调向中度协调的逐渐上升特征，耦合协调度演进曲线表现为波浪式演进，乡村空间发展态势更为良性、有序。京津冀三生空间功能类型主要为生态功能领先-生活功能滞后和生产功能领先-生态功能滞后2种类型，前者主要分布在西北部，后者主要分布在东南部，空间上具有明显的集聚特征。

（4）本研究集成Dyna-CLUE和Markov模型模拟了2030年现状延续、耕地保护和生态安全等三种情景下的土地利用空间分布，模拟结果表明不同情景下的土地利用结构和空间分布差异明显。2000-2015年间京津冀地区“三生”空间冲突呈现为倒“U”型曲线结构，处于适度的失控冲突主导状态；研究区内近80%的地区处于冲突稳态，总体冲突水平呈现出先上升后下降的趋势，空间分布格局基本维持稳定。2030年模拟情景下，“三生”空间冲突同样呈现为倒“U”型曲线结构，但在不同情景下冲突结构差异明显。在生态安全情景下，研究区空间冲突呈现持续减弱趋势，而在现状延续和耕地保护情景下则表现为冲突增强，因此生态安全情景是京津冀地区在当前阶段更优的空间布局模式。

（5）本文基于“人口-土地-产业”视角构建城乡转型评价指标体系，定量揭示了2000-2015年京津冀地区的城乡转型。2000-2015年间，京津冀人口城镇化率和土地城镇化率平均值均从较低水平转型逐步发展为中等水平转型，而产业非农化率一直保持在高水平转型。人口城镇化率和土地城镇化率具有相似的空间分布，高水平转型主要集中在北京、天津市中心，呈“京-津”双核结构；产业非农化率地域空间分布差异较小。千禧年以来，转型耦合度（TCD）和协调转型度（CTD）没有低水平状态，整体上变化相似。TCD平均值由中等水平发展为较高水平，而协调偏离度（CDD）在较低水平偏离范围内呈现降低趋势。空间上，TCD和CTD高水平区由2000年的京津主城区逐渐发展为2015年的京津融合区，即京津走廊。城乡转型发展曲线呈“S”曲线，并可划分为4个类型和发展阶段，即低水平协调转型阶段、人-地-业驱动转型阶段、人-地同步驱动转型阶段、人-地差异驱动转型阶段。

（6）京津冀地区城乡转型可划分为主导转型区、核心转型区、潜力转型区、限制转型区等4个功能分区。主导转型区的乡村振兴模式主要有都市近郊乡村旅游拉动模式和城郊多功能农业发展模式，核心转型区主要有农村电商助力模式、土地整治带动模式和田园综合体发展模式，潜力转型区主要有工业企业驱动模式、农业产业化带动模式和生态文化旅游发展模式，限制转型区主要有特色生态农业发展模式和“易地搬迁+”发展模式。各类模式为各功能区的典型模式代表，但并非仅局限于本区域乡村振兴，在其内外部条件适宜时也可发展。

Over the past decades, the constraints of China’s urban-rural dual system and the strategies of giving priority to the developments of city, have not only brought the unbalanced urban-rural development and inadequate rural development, but also become major obstacles to the urban-rural integrated development and rural revitalization in the new period. Currently, the problem of rural decline in China becomes serious. In particular, the unlimited expansion of living space, inefficient utilization of production space and ecological environment pollution are becoming increasingly prominent, and the conflicts among rural production-living-ecological spaces are intensified. Taking Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) metropolitan area as the research area, this study reveals the pattern change, process and mechanism of rural production-living-ecological spaces according to the national rural revitalization strategy and the BTH integrated development strategy. Furthermore, through multi-scenario simulation, this paper explores the future optimal layout of rural regional space, analyzes the typical regional model for rural revitalization and sustainable development, and establishes and improves the guarantee mechanism of rural sustainable development. This research will provide a scientific guidance for the implementation of strategies such as rural revitalization and BTH coordinated development and the implementation of land spatial planning. The main conclusions are as follows.

(1) Given that land is rural spatial carrier, this research analyzes the spatio-temporal change of production-living-ecological spaces by land use reclassification in BTH region from 1985 to 2018. On the whole, the land use pattern has changed significantly during the study period, showing the characteristics of rapid expansion of living space, shrinking production space and relatively stable ecological space. And the increase of urban and rural living land mainly comes from agricultural production land. Specifically, the non-agricultural transfer of cultivated land to construction land is the main type in each time interval. In terms of space, the expansion of construction land and the loss of cultivated land mainly occur in the periphery of urban core areas such as Beijing, Tianjin and Shijiazhuang.

(2) Land use change in BTH region is mainly affected by natural conditions, accessibility and socio-economic development level. The main influence factors of construction land expansion include the distance to the nearest city / county center and the distance to the nearest expressway; attention should be paid to avoid the negative effects brought by the development of “edge” and “along the line”. The main influence factors of cultivated land loss are slope, the distance to the nearest city / county center and the distance to the nearest expressway; the situation of cultivated land protection in areas with suitable terrain, good location and traffic conditions is particularly severe.

(3) This research constructs an evaluation index system and uses a coupling coordination degree model to measure the coupling coordination state of rural production-living-ecological function in BTH region. The spatio-temporal differentiation characteristics of rural production-living-ecological function are obvious. The coupling degree showed the spatial pattern of “high in the northwest and low in the southeast” and it evaluated as an S-shaped curve. As for the coupling coordination degree, area at moderate coordination state gradually expands to the northwest from the “northeast-southwest” belt. Meanwhile the coupling coordination degree of rural production-living-ecological functions presented an overall increasing trend over time from the moderate imbalance to moderate coordination and the evolution curve of coupling coordination degree shows wave-like trend. The BTH region is mainly dominated by the leading ecological function-lagging living function type which is concentrated in the northwest, and the leading production function-lagging ecological function type which is mainly located in the southeast.

(4) This research integrates the Dyna-CLUE and Markov models to simulate the spatial distribution of land use in 2030 under three scenarios, i.e., the business as usual (BAU) scenario, cropland protection (CP) scenario and ecological security (ES) scenario. The simulation results show that the land use structure and spatial distribution under different scenarios are significantly different. Besides, the production-living-ecological spatial conflict in BTH region from 2000 to 2015 presents an inverted U-shaped curve, which is in a moderate out of control conflict dominant state. Nearly 80% of the areas are in a stable state of conflict, and the overall level of conflict shows a trend of first rising and then decreasing, and the spatial distribution pattern is basically stable. Meanwhile, the production-living-ecological spatial conflict under the three 2030 simulation scenarios also presents an inverted U-shaped curve structure. Yet, the conflict structure is significantly different under different scenario. Under the ES scenario, the spatial conflict in the study area shows a continuous weakening trend, while the conflict is enforced in the BAU and CP scenarios. The ES scenario is regarded as the most suitable spatial layout mode in BTH region.

(5) This research constructs an evaluation index system of urban-rural transformation from the perspective of "population-land-industry". The average population urbanization rate and land urbanization rate in the study area have gradually increased from a low level to a medium level from 2000 to 2015, while the industrial non-agricultural rate has been maintained at a high level. Population urbanization rate and land urbanization rate have similar spatial distributions. The high-level transformation is mainly concentrated in the center of Beijing and Tianjin, showing a "Beijing-Tianjin" dual core structure, while there is small spatial distribution difference of industrial non-agricultural rate. Since the millennium, the overall changes of transition coupling degree (TCD) and coordinated transition degree (CTD) are similar. The average value of TCD has developed from medium level to high level, while the coordination deviation degree (CDD) shows a downward trend. In terms of space, TCD and CTD high-level areas gradually developed from the main urban area of Beijing and Tianjin in 2000 to the integration area of Beijing and Tianjin in 2015, namely the Beijing-Tianjin corridor. The urban-rural transformation presents an “S” curve and can be divided into four types and development stages, namely, low-level coordinated transformation stage, human-land-industry driven transformation stage, human-land synchronous driving transformation stage, human-land difference driven transformation stage.

(6) Urban-rural transformation in the study area could be divided four functional zones, i.e., dominant transition area, key transition area, potential transition area and restricted transition area. The rural revitalization modes in the dominant transition area mainly include pulling mode of rural tourism in suburban areas and development mode of multifunctional agriculture in suburbs; the ones in the key transition area mainly include rural e-commerce driving mode, land consolidation driving mode and pastoral complex development mode; the ones in the potential transition area mainly include industrial enterprises driving mode, agricultural industrialization driving mode and eco-cultural tourism development mode; the ones in the restricted transition area mainly include development model of characteristic ecological agriculture and “Relocation+” mode. These models are typical models of each functional area, but they are not limited to the regional rural revitalization and they could be developed when the internal and external conditions are appropriate.