作为解决流域水资源短缺和水环境污染关键措施的流域水资源开发利用与水环境污染防治工作，应该在流域水系统规划指导下进行。经过70余年的发展历程，我国流域规划已基本形成统筹环境、社会、经济因素的综合性规划，并形成流域、区域、行业等的多层次规划格局。但在实际的规划编制过程中，由于“多龙治水”的流域管理现状，流域上下游地区以及地区的各部门专项规划往往分别制定，并未完全统一在流域水系统综合规划体系之下。流域内相关部门或区域规划之间在规划目标、总量分配、水资源开发利用与污染治理措施方案等方面均可能存在冲突，其与流域水系统综合规划同样也会发生冲突。这不仅不符合流域规划的总体布局，同时也为规划目标的实现与规划方案的实施制造障碍；也可能产生上下游和不同部门间的权责不清、管理不明的问题。
在这一背景下，本论文以系统科学思想与多规融合理念为指导，构建了基于大系统递阶的流域水系统集成规划理论与技术方法体系：首先利用水足迹对流域和区域的可持续性、冲突现状及驱动因素进行回顾性评估和分析，然后构建流域水系统递阶集成规划模型，在兼顾区域利益最大化的同时保证了流域整体冲突局势和区域间冲突处于可接受程度，并达到帕累托最优状态，有效解决了流域水系统规划中上下级规划间、区域规划间存在冲突矛盾、协调不畅，以及上级规划不能对下级规划进行有效指导等问题，可为流域规划及其在编制过程中与下位规划的指导和衔接提供理论与技术支持，并在一定程度上推进了不同类别和属性的流域专项规划之间的衔接和融合。
论文以青海省湟水流域小峡桥断面上游为案例，进行流域水系统集成规划案例研究，得到的主要结论包括：
1、通过案例实证研究，本文所建立的基于大系统递阶的流域水系统集成规划技术方法充分考虑了流域上下游和不同部门在规划中的偏好与期望；兼顾了流域整体与区域和行业局部的优化；解决了流域水系统规划过程中上下层级规划、区域间规划存在的冲突和矛盾；丰富和发展了流域水系统规划理论方法体系，为流域水系统规划提供了理论和技术支撑。
2、湟水流域水足迹可持续性回顾性评价结果表明：流域内不同区域的水环境承载状态有较大差异，中下游存在严重的水资源短缺和水环境污染问题。基于水足迹的流域内区域间冲突评估结果表明，流域目前的水资源利用和污染物排放处于中等冲突水平，但在较为干旱状态下（2013年）则冲突程度较为严重；位于下游的西宁市区与其他各区域的冲突较为严重，是未来流域规划亟需协调的重点。整体而言，在流域现有发展状态下，区域间资源环境承载状态不协调，缺乏流域层面统一规划，上下游不同区域间冲突不可忽视，是未来规划需要充分考虑的因素。
3、基于LMDI的水足迹变化驱动因素分解结果表明：影响流域耗水和排污的因素包括用水/排污强度、产业结构、产出规模、城镇化和人口规模等五个因素，其中用水/排污强度是唯一的负向驱动因素，对抑制水足迹增长（耗水和排污）起到关键的作用。在正向驱动因素中，在流域和区域尺度，产出规模效应（人均GDP）贡献率均为最大（509.4%），其次为产业结构（162.6%），是流域规划中应重点进行优化和调整的方面。人口规模效应和城镇化效应的贡献率相对较小（分别为6.0%和2.1%）。
4、通过构建基于大系统递阶的流域水系统集成规划模型，对湟水流域以2016-2030年为期进行了集成规划。根据规划方案优化结果：
（1）水资源和水环境已成为制约流域和区域发展的重要因素。从增容减排、双向调控的角度，一方面，应采取跨区域调水、完善给排水管网、提高污水处理能力、提高雨水回用、污水深度处理回用等措施提高水环境承载能力；另一方面，应注意采取优化调整产业结构、推行清洁生产、测土配方、划定畜业禁养区等措施来减少对水环境的压力。
（2）根据规划方案，在规划期末，整个流域人口预计达到309.1万人，国民生产总值达3102.83亿元（西宁市区、大通县、湟中县、湟源县、海晏县和互助县分别为1798.06亿元、278.17亿元、600.50亿元、99.18亿元、30.73亿元和296.19亿元）。产业结构方面，第一产业比重有所下降，第二产业比重持续上升（2020年三次产业比例6.0:54.8:39.2，2030年达到4.5:52.5:43.0）。区域三次产业变化趋势与流域整体相近。
（3）根据2016、2017年的流域实际社会经济数据与规划值的对比，通过在递阶规划中流域层对上下游区域用水排污的充分协调，上下游对资源的利用得到了重新分配，以流域整体GDP略微下降（2016、2017年分别相差4.9%和3.3%）为代价，流域内水资源、水环境得以保持在资源利用上线和环境质量底线内，社会经济发展规模得到优化，且流域整体冲突局势和区域间的冲突程度均得到明显降低。
（4）在优化得到的规划方案中，湟水流域在未来应降低畜牧业占比，提高机械制造、医药制造等技术密集型产业在工业中的比重，持续优化产业结构。基于对基本农田的保护，种植业的灌溉耗水依然为各区域用水的主体。未来应加强种植结构的优化调整，在适当范围内提高蔬菜、油菜等经济作物的种植面积。位于流域中下游的湟中县、湟源县和大通县三个区域，规划方案建议未来以技术密集型产业为主要发展对象，从无到有，在规划期末成为主要类型产业；位于上游的海晏县基于其流域水环境重点保护区域的定位，其社会经济发展规模受到限制，中下游地区应在公平和可行原则下给予适度生态补偿。

The development and utilization of water resource and the prevention and control of water environmental pollution in the basin, as the key measures to solve the water shortage and pollution, should be carried out under the guidance of the basin water system planning. After more than 70 years of development, the basin planning has basically became a comprehensive form for coordinating environmental, social and economic factors, and formed a multi-level planning pattern of basins, regions and industries. However, in the actual planning process, due to the current situation of the basin management of “multi-sector governance”, the regional planning of upstream and downstream, and the industrial planning of various regions are always formulated separately and not completely unified under the comprehensive basin planning system. The lower-level planning may conflict with the basin planning in terms of planning objectives, total allocation, water resources development and utilization, and pollution control measures, and they may also conflict with the water system integrated planning. This does not conform to the overall layout of basin planning, but may also result in unclear responsibilities and management among different regions and departments.
Under this background, guided by the concept of system science and multi-planning integration, this paper constructs a theoretical and methodological system of basin water system integrated planning based on large-scale system hierarchy: firstly, water footprint is applied to retrospectively evaluate and analyze the sustainability, conflict status and driving factors of basin and region. Then, the hierarchical integrated planning model of basin water system is constructed, under the conditions of acceptable overall and inter-regional conflict situation, the regional benefits are maximized and achieve the Pareto optimal state, which effectively solves the problems of conflicting contradictions and poor coordination between different levels of planning and that the superior planning cannot effectively guide the lower level planning. This theoretical and methodological hierarchical planning system can provide technical support for the guidance and connection of basin and regional planning in formulated process, and promotes the convergence and integration between different categories and attributes of planning.
Taking the upstream of Xiaoxiaqiao Section of Huangshui River basin in Qinghai Province as an example, this paper carries out the study on the integrated planning of the basin water system. The main conclusions obtained include:
1. Through case study, the approach of basin water system integrated planning based on large system hierarchy established in this paper fully considers the preferences and expectations of the upstream and downstream of the basin and different departments in planning; taking into account the overall and regional and industrial parts of the basin; what is more, it solves the conflicts and contradictions in the upper and lower level planning and inter-regional planning in the basin water system planning process, enriches and develops the basin water system planning theory and method system, and provides theoretical and technical support for the basin water system planning.
2. The results of retrospective evaluation indicate that the water environmental carrying conditions in various regions of Huangshui River basin are quite different, and there are serious water shortages and water pollution problems in the middle-down-stream. The results of inter-regional conflict assessment in the basin based on water footprint indicate that the current water utilization and pollutant discharge in the basin are at a medium conflict level, but it can reach a more serious level in a relatively dry state (the year of 2013). Xining urban district located in downstream has more serious conflicts with other regions, which is the key point for the future basin planning. Overall, under the current development status of the Huangshui River basin, the inter-regional resource and environment carrying status are not coordinated, and there is no unified planning at the basin level. Conflicts between different regions in the upstream and downstream cannot be ignored, which is a factor that needs to be fully considered in future planning.
3. The driving factor decomposition of water footprint change based on Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) shows that the factors affecting water consumption and sewage discharge in the basin include five factors: water/discharge intensity, industrial structure, output scale, urbanization and population size. Among these factors, water utilization/discharge intensity is the only negative driver that plays a key role in inhibiting water footprint growth (water consumption and sewerage). On the level of basin and region, the output scale effect (per capita GDP) contributed largest (509.4%), followed by the industrial structure effect (162.6%), which should be optimized and adjusted in the basin planning emphatically. The contribution rate of population size effect and urbanization effect is relatively smaller (6.0% and 2.1%, respectively).
4. By constructing a basin water system integrated planning model based on large system hierarchy, the integrated planning of the Huangshui River Basin was carried out in the period of  2016-2030. According to the optimized plan:
(1) The planning objectives of each region are basically reachable (the economic target rate is over 97%, and the social target is over 77%), but water resources and water environment have become important factors restricting river basin and regional development. From the perspective of capacity expansion and emission reduction and two-way regulation, on the one hand, measures should be taken to improve water environment carrying capacity by adopting measures such as trans-regional water transfer, improvement of water supply and drainage pipe network, improvement of sewage treatment capacity, improvement of rainwater reuse, and deep treatment and reuse of sewage; On the other hand, attention should be paid to measures such as optimizing the industrial structure, promoting clean production, soil testing formulas, and delineating livestock ban areas to reduce the pressure on the water environment.
(2) According to the optimized plan, at the end of the planning period, the population of the whole basin is expected to reach 3.091 million, and the gross national product will reach 310.28 billion yuan (179.86 billion, 27.87 billion, 600.50 billion, 9.92 billion, 3.07 billion and 29.62 billion for Xining City District, Datong County, Huangzhong County, Huangyuan County, Haiyan County and Huzhu County, respectively). In terms of industrial structure, the proportion of the primary industry has declined, and the proportion of the secondary industry has continued to rise (the ratio of three industries in 2020 is 6.0:54.8:39.2, and in 2030 it is 4.5:52.5:43.0). The trend of the three industries in the region is similar to that of the basin.
(3) According to the comparison of actual socio-economic data of the basin in 2016 and 2017 with the optimized planning, through the full coordination of water utilization and pollutant load in the upstream and downstream regions in the hierarchical planning, the use of resources in the upstream and downstream have been redistributed. At the cost of a slight decrease (4.9% in 2016 and 3.3% in 2017 respectively) of the overall GDP of the basin, the water resources and water environment in the river basin were maintained within the resource utilization and environmental quality bottom lines the scale of socioeconomic development was optimized, and the overall conflict situation and the degree of conflict between regions has been significantly reduced.
(4) In the optimized planning proposal, the Huangshui River basin should reduce the proportion of graziery, promote the technology-intensive industries such as machinery manufacturing and pharmaceutical manufacturing in the future. Due to the protection of basic farmland, irrigation water consumption in farming will still be the mainstay of water use in most regions. The optimal adjustment of planting structure should be strengthened to increase the planting area of economic crops such as vegetables and rapeseed in an appropriate range. For Huangchong County, Huangyuan County and Datong County, which are located in the middle-down-stream, the plan proposes to focus on technology-intensive industries in the future, developing from scratch to becoming the main type of industry at the end of the planning period. Based on the positioning of the key protected areas of the water environment in the basin, the scale of its social and economic development is limited, the regions in the middle-down-stream should give appropriate ecological compensation under the principle of fairness and feasibility.