草原具有生产功能与生态功能的双重属性，不仅是我国草牧业发展的载体与基础，更是我国生态安全体系的重要组成部分。但在超载过牧等不合理的人类活动，加之气候变化的双重影响下，草原出现退化，其生产功能与生态功能均十分低下，草原生态环境面临着严峻的挑战。为解决草原生态环境保护和牧区发展的问题，“生态草牧业”这一理念应运而生，其精髓在于强调生产功能和生态功能的统一与双赢，生态草牧业的可持续发展能够将牧区的经济效益与草原合理利用及其生态环境保护结合起来，促进牧区生产、生活和生态全面协调发展。

呼伦贝尔草原是我国重要的畜牧业生产基地，也是北方生态安全屏障的重要组成部分，本研究选取其核心区域“牧业四旗”作为研究区。使用气象数据、野外调查和访谈数据以及社会经济数据等，结合本课题组对生态草牧业内涵的理解，在之前区域可持续发展评价指标的基础之上，补充了气温、降水、草地质量（草层高度、盖度、优良牧草占比）和政策指标，分别从自然、经济、社会和政策四个方面，开展了对2009-2019年呼伦贝尔市牧业四旗的生态草牧业可持续发展状况的评价与实证分析研究。主要研究结果如下：

（1）在“生态”环境的气候因素方面：气候有暖干化趋势；在“草”方面：草地状况有改善趋势，但时空差异明显；在“牧”和“业”方面：各牧业旗的农牧业机械总动力、四项国民经济综合指标和生产规模均呈增加趋势，而人口总数呈下降趋势；在政策方面：自“草牧业”2015年被写入中央一号文件以来，相关政策随之增多，主要内容从“恢复植被，改善生态环境”转向“在保障生态安全的基础上，达到草地生产功能和生态功能的合理配置与双赢”。总体来看，除了气候的暖干化趋势不利于生态草牧业的发展之外，其他方面的条件均利于其发展。

（2）虽然各牧业旗的生态草牧业可持续发展水平均呈上升趋势，但均未达到较高的可持续发展水平，整体牧业四旗（0.47分）处于中等可持续发展水平，其中，鄂温克族自治旗（0.48分）和新巴尔虎右旗（0.41分）处于中等可持续发展水平，陈巴尔虎旗（0.36分）和新巴尔虎左旗（0.32分）处于较低的可持续发展水平，而且从自然、经济、社会和政策指标得分占比来看，各牧业旗的可持续发展水平并不均衡。各牧业旗的生态福利绩效均呈上升趋势，整体牧业四旗（1.16）的生态福利绩效平均值大于1，但仍有4年的投入未得到有效产出，其中，鄂温克族自治旗（0.48）和新巴尔虎左旗（0.80）的生态福利绩效平均值均小于1；陈巴尔虎旗（1.12）的生态福利绩效平均值大于1，但仍有4年的投入未得到有效产出；只有新巴尔虎右旗（3.05）在所有年份的投入均可得到有效产出。可持续发展综合得分和生态福利绩效的主要影响因素有所不同，可持续发展综合得分的决定性因素是经济要素，其主要影响因素有：人均生产总值、农牧业机械总动力、年末牲畜存栏量和农牧区人均可支配收入，均为正向影响，生态福利绩效的主要影响因素是人口总数，为负向影响。

（3）通过427份入户访谈数据，发现呼伦贝尔市牧业四旗生态草牧业可持续发展面临的问题如下：①有无草地使用权以及草场大小，是导致牧户间收入差距较大的原因之一，57.85%的牧户没有草地使用权（草原证），此类牧户生产成本大，家庭经济十分脆弱，已成为生态草牧业发展中的不稳定因素；②草原生态退化且自然灾害频发，特别是2013-2017年的严重干旱，对草地产生了明显的负面影响，74.47%的牧户反映近些年收入减少，影响了生态草牧业的可持续发展以及草原生态环境保护。③目前草原生态环境保护政策主要侧重于草原的封闭式建设，还未实现草原生态功能和生产功能的统一与双赢。此外，当地牧户对草原生态环境保护政策的了解程度普遍偏低（了解一点占54.63%，比较了解占29.22%，非常了解仅占1.43%，甚至还有14.73%不了解），相关政策宣传力度有待于加强。

综上所述，为提高生态草牧业可持续发展水平，本文提出针对性政策建议如下：①推进土地管理体制和草场经营模式创新；②完善灾害预警机制，建立灾害风险共担与转移制度；③加强对草牧业发展的扶持力度以及相关政策的宣传力度，完善生态补偿机制。

Grassland has the dual attributes of production function and ecological function, which is not only the carrier and foundation of the development of grass-based livestock husbandry in China, but also an important part of China's ecological security system. However, under the influence of unreasonable human activities such as overgrazing and climate change, grasslands are degraded, their production functions and ecological functions are very low, and grassland ecological environment is facing severe challenges. In order to solve the problem of grassland ecological environment protection and pastoral development, the concept of "ecological grass-based livestock husbandry" came into being, which emphasized the unity and win-win situation of production function and ecological function, and the development of sustainable grass-based livestock husbandry can combine economic benefits of pastoral areas with the rational utilization of grassland and the protection of ecological environment, and promote the comprehensive and coordinated development of production, life and ecology in pastoral areas.

Hulun Buir Grassland is an important animal husbandry production base in China and an important part of the ecological safety barrier in the north. This study selected the core area of Hulun Buir Grassland "Four Herding Banners" as the study area. Using meteorological data, field survey, interview data and social and economic data, combined with our research group's understanding of the connotation of grass-based livestock husbandry, on the basis of the previous evaluation indexes of regional sustainable development, added temperature, precipitation, grassland quality (grass height, coverage and proportion of good forage grass) and policy indexes, this paper evaluated and empirical analyzed the sustainable development of grass-based livestock husbandry in Four Herding Banners of Hulun Buir from 2009 to 2019 from four aspects: nature, economy, society and policy. The main findings are as follows:

(1) In the aspect of climate factor of "ecology" environment: the climate has the trend of warming and drying; in terms of "grass", there was a trend of improvement in the grassland condition, but the difference of time and space was obvious; in terms of "pastoral" and "industry", agricultural and animal husbandry machinery total power, four comprehensive indexes of national economy and production scale all showed an increasing trend, while total population showed a decreasing trend; in terms of policies: since "grass-based livestock husbandry" was written into the No.1 document of the central government in 2015, relevant policies have increased accordingly, with the main content shifting from "restoring vegetation and improving ecological environment" to "realizing rational allocation and win-win situation of grassland production and ecological functions on the basis of safeguarding ecological security". In general, the conditions are favorable for the development of ecological grass animal husbandry except that the climate is becoming warmer and drier is unfavorable to the development of ecological grass animal husbandry.

(2) Although the sustainable development level of the ecological grass-based livestock husbandry in all the herding banners showed an upward trend, they did not reach the higher level of sustainable development. The overall Four Herding Banners(0.47 points) was at the medium level, among which, Evenk Autonomous Banner(0.48 points) and Xin Barag Youqi(0.41 points) were at the medium level, while Chen Barag Qi(0.36 points) and Xin Barag Zuoqi(0.32 points) were at the low level. Moreover, in terms of the proportion of scores for natural, economic, social and policy indicators, the level of sustainable development is uneven. The ecological wellbeing performances of all the herding banners showed an upward trend. The average ecological welfare performances of the overall Four Herding Banners(1.16) was more than 1, but there was still four years of input without effective output. Among which, the average value of ecological welfare performances of Evenk Autonomous Banner(0.48) and Xin Barag Zuoqi(0.80) were less than 1; Chen Barag Qi (1.12) was more than 1, but there was still four years of input without effective output; only Xin Barag Youqi(3.05) could get effective output in all years. The main influence factors are different, the sustainable development of comprehensive score the decisive factor is the economic factors, and the main influencing factors are per capita GDP, agricultural and animal husbandry machinery total power, year-end stock of livestock and per capita disposable income of agricultural and pastoral areas, which have a positive impact. The main influencing factor of ecological wellbeing performances is the total population, which has a negative impact.

(3) Through 427 household interview data, it is found that the problems faced by the sustainable development of ecological grass-based livestock husbandry in Four Herding Banners of Hulun Buir are as follows: ①The use right and size of grassland are one of the reasons for the large income gap among pastoralists. 57.85% of the pastoralists do not have the right to use the grassland(grassland certificate). Such pastoralists have high production cost and very fragile family economy, which has become an unstable factor in the development of ecological grass-based livestock husbandry. ②Grassland ecological degradation and frequent natural disasters, especially the severe drought from 2013 to 2017, had a significant negative impact on grassland, 74.47% of the pastoralists reported a decrease in income in recent years, which affected the sustainable development of ecological grass-based livestock husbandry and grassland ecological environmental protection. ③At present, the grassland ecological environmental protection policies mainly focus on the closed construction of grassland, the unification and win-win of grassland ecological function and production function have not been realized. In addition, local herdsmen generally have a low understanding of grassland ecological environmental protection policies(54.63% know a little, 29.22% know a little, only 1.43% know very well, and even 14.73% don't know), and the promotion of relevant policies needs to be strengthened.

To sum up, in order to improve the sustainable development level of ecological grass-based livestock husbandry, this paper puts forward the following targeted policy recommendations: ①promote the innovation of land management system and grassland management mode; ②improve the disaster early warning mechanism, and establish the disaster risk sharing and transfer system; ③strengthen the support for the development of grass-based livestock husbandry and the publicity of related policies, and improve the ecological compensation mechanism.