本文选取 2010-2017 年中国大豆进出口数据以及在此期间的人 民币与美元、巴西雷亚尔和阿根廷比索的汇率数据进行回归分析， 探究汇率变动对于大豆进口的影响，人民币与美元，日元，韩元的 汇率数据进行回归分析，探究汇率变动对于大豆出口的影响。同时 对比 2014 年之前与之后的数据，探究了大豆目标价格补贴政策对 于大豆进出口的影响。结果发现，美元、巴西雷亚尔、阿根廷比索 对人民币升值会在一定程度上降低大豆进口，但是影响并不显著。 而汇率变动对于出口数量基本没有影响。大豆目标价格补贴政策的 实施对于大豆进口并未产生显著影响，但会明显减少大豆的出口。

This paper selects Chinese soybean import and export data from 2010-2017 and the exchange rate data of RMB with USD, Brazilian Real and Argentine Peso during this period for regression analysis to explore the impact of exchange rate changes on soybean imports, and RMB with USD, JPY and KRW for regression analysis to explore the impact of exchange rate changes on soybean exports. The impact of soybean target price subsidy policy on soybean imports and exports is also explored by comparing data before and after 2014. The results found that the appreciation of the U.S. dollar, Brazilian real, and Argentine peso against the RMB would reduce soybean imports to some extent, but the effect was not significant. And exchange rate changes have basically no effect on export quantities. The implementation of the soybean target price subsidy policy does not have a significant impact on soybean imports, but it will significantly reduce soybean exports.