中文题名: | 我国基本养老保险对居民消费的影响分析 |
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保密级别: | 公开 |
论文语种: | chi |
学科代码: | 025200 |
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学生类型: | 硕士 |
学位: | 应用统计硕士 |
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学位年度: | 2024 |
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研究方向: | 经济应用统计 |
第一导师姓名: | |
第一导师单位: | |
提交日期: | 2024-06-13 |
答辩日期: | 2024-05-21 |
外文题名: | Analysis of the Influence of China’s Basic Endowment Insurance on Household Consumption |
中文关键词: | |
外文关键词: | Basic endowment insurance ; Household consumption ; Comprehensive evaluation ; Dynamic panel model ; Instrumental variable |
中文摘要: |
近年间,在我国经济高速发展的同时,居民消费呈现持续低迷状态,经济发展的可持续性受到威胁。养老保险为居民的晚年生活提供额外的保障,降低储蓄意愿,进而间接释放出更多消费。因此在人口老龄化日趋严重、养老保障制度不断完善的当下,养老保险对于居民消费产生的影响值得进一步探讨。 本文从省域宏观数据和家庭微观数据两方面研究我国基本养老保险对居民消费的影响作用。首先,本文使用熵权法和TOPSIS综合评价法对基本养老保险保障水平进行统计测度,得到各省各年度的保障水平得分。之后选取我国31个省级行政区2013-2022年的面板数据分析养老保险保障水平对居民消费的影响,分别构建固定效应静态面板和系统GMM动态面板计量模型进行实证,结果显示养老保险保障水平的提高会显著增加居民的消费水平。进而,使用CHIP2018数据探讨养老保险对于居民家庭消费水平及结构的影响。结果同样表明参保家庭的消费水平平均高于未参保家庭,说明养老保险能显著增强居民的消费信心,提振消费活力。此外,深入研究发现参加城镇职工养老保险相比于城乡居民养老保险对家庭消费的提升效力更大,参加基本养老保险对于城镇家庭的促进作用大于农村家庭。最后,考察养老保险对消费结构的影响,参保家庭的生存型消费与发展和享受型消费均高于未参保家庭,生存型消费的提高更明显。说明相比发展和享受型消费来说,生存型消费会更多地受到是否参加基本养老保险的影响。同时现阶段养老保险对消费的带动更多来自于基础的生存型消费,我国的消费结构仍需进一步优化。 对此,本文提出以下政策建议:(1)扩大养老保险覆盖范围,确保更多居民纳入养老保险体系。(2)缩小养老金待遇差距,建立更公平完善的养老保险体系。(3)抓住银发经济机遇,着力拓展老年消费市场。(4)缩小城镇乡村收入差距,完善农村养老保障制度。 |
外文摘要: |
In recent years, while China's economy has been developing rapidly, household consumption has been in a continuous slump. The sustainability of economic development has been in crisis. Endowment insurance provides additional protection for residents in their old age, reduces their willingness to save, and indirectly releases more consumption. Therefore, the influence of endowment insurance on household consumption is worth exploring further in the face of the increasingly serious aging of the population and the continuous improvement of the pension security system. This paper studies the influence of China's basic endowment insurance on household consumption from both provincial macro data and household microdata. Firstly, this paper uses the entropy weight method and TOPSIS comprehensive evaluation method to statistically measure the protection level of basic endowment insurance and obtains the protection level scores of each province each year. After that, this paper selects the panel data of China's 31 provinces from 2013 to 2022 to analyze the influence of the level of endowment insurance protection on household consumption. Fixed-effects static panel and systematic GMM dynamic panel econometric models are constructed respectively for empirical evidence, and the results show that the increase in the level of endowment insurance protection significantly increases household consumption. Furthermore, CHIP2018 data are used to explore the influence of endowment insurance on the consumption level and structure of resident households. The results also show that the consumption level of insured households is higher than that of uninsured households on average, indicating that endowment insurance can significantly increase household consumption confidence and boost consumption dynamics. In addition, the in-depth study finds that participation in urban employees’ endowment insurance has a greater effect on household consumption than urban and rural residents' endowment insurance, and participation in basic endowment insurance has a greater effect on urban households than on rural households. Finally, examining the influence of endowment insurance on consumption structure, both survival consumption and development and enjoyment consumption are higher in insured households than in non-participating households, and the increase in survival consumption is more obvious. This shows that survival consumption is more affected by participation in basic endowment insurance than development and enjoyment consumption. This shows that the driving force of endowment insurance on consumption at this stage comes more from basic survival consumption, and China's consumption structure still needs further optimization. In response, this paper proposes the following policy recommendations. (1) Expand the coverage of endowment insurance to ensure that more residents are included in the endowment insurance system. (2) Reduce the gap in pension treatment and establish a fairer and more perfect endowment insurance system. (3) Seize the opportunities of the silver economy and focus on expanding the elderly consumer market. (4) Narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas and improving the rural pension system. |
参考文献总数: | 33 |
馆藏号: | 硕025200/24013 |
开放日期: | 2025-06-13 |