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中文题名:

 经济增长视角下的制度创新绩效研究——基于1978-2012年的经验与数据    

姓名:

 李晓    

学科代码:

 120401    

学科专业:

 行政管理    

学生类型:

 博士    

学位:

 管理学博士    

学位年度:

 2014    

校区:

 北京校区培养    

学院:

 政府管理学院    

研究方向:

 政府经济管理    

第一导师姓名:

 唐任伍    

第一导师单位:

 北京师范大学政府管理学院    

提交日期:

 2014-06-22    

答辩日期:

 2014-05-28    

外文题名:

 THE EFFECTIVENESS STUDY OF CHINA’S INSTITUTIONAL INNOVATION IN LIGHT OF ECONOMIC GROWTH——A LONGITUDE ANALYSIS ON DATA AND FACTS DURING 1978-2012    

中文摘要:
摘 要改革开放三十五年来,我国经济持续快速发展,国际地位和综合实力逐步增强,人民生活水平不断提高,造就了令世界瞩目的“中国奇迹”。改革开放无疑是当代中国命运的关键抉择,是一项伟大的制度创新。当前,我国经济、政治、社会等各方面都进入了改革的深水区和攻坚期,如何进一步制度创新,推动全面深化改革,获取改革红利,则成为了下一阶段我国社会经济发展的主题。本文在对西方经济增长理论进行梳理的基础上,探讨了新制度经济学理论以及制度创新理论有关制度因素对经济增长的主要观点。从内在实质和逻辑的角度,回顾了改革开放以来我国制度创新的历史演进及特征,并将我国的制度创新过程划分为制度创新起始阶段、制度创新发展阶段、制度创新展开阶段和制度创新深化阶段。根据改革开放以来我国制度创新绩效的机理分析以及历史数据的全面性、可得性,使用统计学中的K-近邻法、时间序列法和回归法对数据进行插补和优化,综合运用层次分析法、矩阵判断标度法,构造层次结构模型及判断矩阵,通过层次单排序及一致性检验、层次总排序及一致性检验,比较影响我国制度创新绩效各指标,并确定各指标的评价标准、分值及权重,最终构建了包含所有制结构、市场化程度、对外开放程度以及产业结构四个二级指标,十八个三级指标为基础的制度创新绩效评价指标体系。在建立了评价指标体系后,使用R软件计算四个二级指标的欧氏距离,以1978年为基点100,计算相应各指标的定基比指数值,通过加权的方法将分项指数进行合成,得到制度创新绩效指数。通过对各指数走势图和欧氏距离图分析表明:(1)1978年以来我国所有制结构指数呈现不断上升的趋势,从1978年基点100升至2012年的175.73, 2010年达到峰值176.90,计量分析结果充分表明我国的产权制度创新绩效明显,所有制结构日趋合理;(2)1978年以来我国市场化程度指数不断上升,特别是1987年到1993年增长迅速,1993年以后走势趋于平稳,2008年达到顶峰232.98,计量结果充分表明我国市场化成果显著,基本建立了统一开放、竞争有序的市场体系;(3)1978年以来我国对外开放程度指数在波动中不断上升,1993年出现迅速增长,达到历史高点225.21,随后增长缓慢,受亚洲金融危机的影响,指数在2001年出现低谷跌至171.00,自加入WTO后,对外开放程度指数再度飙升,于2009年达到峰值242.04,之后全球金融危机造成指数再度下滑,计量结果充分表明我国逐步形成了全方位、多层次、宽领域的对外开放格局和具有中国特色的开放型经济体系;(4)1978年以来我国产业结构指数总体呈上升趋势,只在1980年、1990年、2004年有小幅下降,并于2012年达到最高值129.23,计量结果充分表明我国产业结构日趋合理,并进入不断深化调整阶段;(5)1978年以来我国制度创新绩效指数呈现出波浪式、间歇式增长态势,制度创新绩效指数经过三十多年的累积,于2010年达到历史最大值194.92,计量结果充分表明自改革开放以来我国的制度创新取得了丰硕的成果。本文通过对制度创新绩效指数的计算,科学合理地量化了制度因素后,进一步重新审视了C-D生产函数,构建了包含制度因素的不同于传统的新型C-D生产函数。使用R软件对相关数据进行建模,具体测算制度因素对经济增长的影响。结果得出:在加入制度因素I的经济增长模型中,资本投入K、劳动力投入L对经济增长Y的弹性发生了变化。其中,资本投入的增长对经济增长的弹性为0.53;劳动力投入的增长对经济增长的弹性为0.01;制度创新通过资本投入对经济增长的弹性为0.23;制度创新通过劳动力投入对经济增长的弹性为0.98;制度创新通过资本投入和劳动投入对经济增长的弹性为1.21,这说明制度创新绩效指数每增长1个百分点,GDP就增长1.21个百分点,实证结果充分显示了制度创新对经济增长的显著作用。
外文摘要:
ABSTRACTThe Reform and Opening up for over thirty-five years has earned China a fast economic development and a heightened international status. China has also been enjoying a more balanced growth, and its people are having a better life. As a result, all this enables it to achieve the “Chinese miracle”. Now as far as the reform goes, it comes to the hard part and a “deep water” area. China’s next phase of economic and social developments need to focus on how to maintain steady growth and social stability, how to continue improving people’s life, and how to find new opportunities. This paper is based upon the analysis of western theories of economic growth, and focuses on the institutional factor’s effect on economic growth, history of institutional innovation, its contents, features, and process. Four phases are introduced to this purpose, namely initial phase of institutional innovation, development phase, progressing phase and deepening phase. According to analysis on the achievement of China’s institutional innovation since the Reform and Opening up, and the analysis of other historical data, K-nearest neighbor method, time series analysis method, and regression method have been used for data optimization. Other methods include the analytic hierarchy process, and scaling matrix, to construct hierarchical models, so as to compare different indicators of institutional innovation achievements, through single hierarchical arrangement and consistency check, and general hierarchical arrangement and consistency check. Score values, weights and different evaluations are assigned to the indicators; in the end an evaluation index system on institutional innovation achievement based on 4 second level indicators, and 18 third level indicators is constructed. It evaluates China’s institutional innovation on ownership structure, marketization process, opening up process and industrial restructuring. With the evaluation index system having been constructed, Euclidean distance of the 4 second level indicators is calculated by using R software. By setting 100 as the base in 1978, the fixing base index of each indicator is calculated, and different weights are assigned to different types of index, through which the index of institutional innovation achievement is obtained. Through the analysis to trends of the index and Euclidean distance:(1)the ownership structure index has been up since 1978, rising from 100 the base to 175.73 in 2012, and peaked at 176.90 in 2010. This quantitative analysis proves that ownership innovation has achieved much, and its structure has gradually improved. (2)the index for the marketization process has also been up since 1978, increasing rapidly during the time from 1987 to 1993. It continued its increasing after that but with a slower speed, peaking at 232.98 in 2008. This represents that our market structure has become more rational and more open. (3)The index for opening up has had a bumpy rise since 1978. From 1993, it shot up to 225.21 and slide down slowly since then due to the effect of the Asian Financial Crisis. It then bottomed at 171 in 2001. Since the accession to the WTO, the index soared again and peaked at 242.04 in 2009, and then dropped in the light of the International Financial Crisis. All the analysis shows that China has formed a multi-front, multi-layered, broadly-based and open economic system with Chinese characteristics. (4)Since 1978, China’s industrial structure index has also been rising, with slight downs in 1980, 1990 and 2004. It peaked at 129.23 in 2012, and shows that the industrial composition became more rational and the adjustment has been further carried out to a deeper level. (5)Index of institutional innovation has experienced systematic rising with ups and downs in certain periods, reaching its highest at 194.92 in 2010 after 30 years of Reform and Opening up since 1978. It also proves that China has achieved much in the front of institutional innovation. Through constructing a 3 dimensional analytical framework, this paper modified the C-D production function with innovation factor. Using R-software to set up the model, estimate and measure the impact of institutional innovation on china’s economic growth. the results include: after adding institutional factor I into the growth model, capital input is K, labor input is L, the elasticity of economic growth Y has changed. The elasticity of capital input to economic growth is 0.23; Institutional innovation through labor input to economic growth in 0.98; institutional innovation through capital and labor input to economic growth is 1.21, which means institutional innovation index rise 1%, GDP will rise 1.21% accordingly. The results show a strong relationship between institutional factors and economic growth.
参考文献总数:

 168    

作者简介:

 李晓(1986-),男,北京市人,本科就读于浙江工业大学,2009年进入北京师范大学,2011年获得硕博连读资格,并于2012年至2013年在美国加州大学洛杉矶分校公派联合培养。主要研究方向为:政府经济管理、政府绩效评估、公共组织金融管理。    

馆藏地:

 图书馆学位论文阅览区(主馆南区三层BC区)    

馆藏号:

 博120401/1405    

开放日期:

 2014-06-22    

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