在中国图书电子商务产业高速发展的带动下，中国图书零售市场的销售业绩从2012年开始一直保持着增长的态势。值得关注的是，多年来线上图书零售持续蚕食线下实体书店销售额，并成为中国图书零售的主力。与此同时，线上图书零售也在挤压着出版社的利润空间。如何既能保持销售业绩增长又能维持利润空间成为很多出版社发展面临的一大难题。其实美国学者克里斯·安德森早就在他的《长尾理论》一书中给出解决问题的答案：即在互联网零售的大背景下关注长尾产品，在利基市场里寻找利润。 基于以上背景，本文选取中国图书零售行业数据以及北京大学出版社2013年-2017年线上图书零售数据为研究对象，分析长尾理论在中国图书零售市场中的具体体现，并对线上图书零售的发展趋势做出了合理的预测。最后，基于长尾理论为出版社如何在互联网销售的形势下实现销售和利润的双增长提出了切实可行的措施。 首先，文章对长尾理论的概念、发展和应用进行介绍，并对长尾理论与二八定律的关系以及长尾理论与利基市场的关系做深入探讨。采用举例论证的方式说明长尾理论得以发展的3个原因：一是基于生产力的提升；二是采用低成本的库房；三是构建无障碍的信息流通。通过对比规模经济与范围经济不同的盈利模式，强调了长尾产品在线上销售中的重要性。 接着，文章通过分析行业数据以及北京大学出版社2013年-2017年线上图书零售数据得出结论：长尾效应在中图图书零售市场中已经凸显，长尾产品的销售额在持续走高并成为了销售业绩的增长主力。并基于这种现象合理预测了北京大学出版社未来3年和5年长尾产品的发展趋势，得出结论：长尾产品在中国图书零售市场中的未来发展趋势会越来越好。 最后，为出版社提出了应对中国图书零售市场长尾趋势的4个对策：一是优化长尾产品页面信息；二是精准营销；三是有针对性的选题和定价；四是精细化分类。

Driven by the rapid development of China's book e-commerce industry, the sales performance of China's book retail market has maintained a growth trend since 2012. It is worth noting that online book retailing has continued to erode the sales of offline bookstores for many years and has become the mainstay of book retailing in China. At the same time, online book retailing is also squeezing the profit margin of the publishing house. How to maintain sales growth and maintain profit margin has become a major problem for many publishers. In fact, the American scholar Chris Anderson has long given the answer to the problem in his book "The LongTail Theory": focusing on the sales of the tail products and looking for profits in the niche market. Based on the above background, this paper selects the online book retail data of Peking University Press from 2013 to 2017 as the research object, analyzes the specific application of long tail theory in the Chinese book retail market, and makes the development trend of online book retailing reasonable prediction. Finally, based on the long tail theory, it puts forward practical measures for the publisher to achieve double sales growth and profit in the situation of Internet sales. First of all, the article introduces the concept, development and application of the long tail theory, and discusses the relationship between the long tail theory and the 80/20 Rule and the relationship between the long tail theory and the niche market. Three reasons for the development of the long tail theory are illustrated by an example argument: First, based on productivity improvement; Second, the use of low-cost warehouse; Third, to build barrier-free information circulation. By comparing the different profit models of economies of scale and scope, the importance of long-tail products in online sales is emphasized. Then, the article concludes by analyzing the online book retail data of Peking University Press from 2013 to 2017: The long tail effect has been highlighted in the Chinese book retail market, and sales of long tail products continue to rise and become the main growth driver of sales. Based on this phenomenon, we can reasonably predict the development trend of Peking University Press in the next 3 years and 5 long tail products and it is concluded that long-tail products will become better and better in the future. Finally, the author put forward four countermeasures for the publisher to deal with the long tail trend of the Chinese book retail market: First is to optimize the information of the tail product page; Second is precision marketing; Third is targeted topic and pricing; Fourth is refined classification.