面对日趋严峻的环境约束和全球气候变暖压力，世界范围内能源转型方兴未艾。在中国，2018年党的十八大会议中明确提出要推进能源生产和消费革命，并逐步确定了构建清洁低碳、安全高效的现代能源体系的能源转型战略方向。2020年，中国向全世界承诺2030年前实现碳达峰，努力争取2060年前实现碳中和，这进一步明确了能源转型的方向，并要求加速推进能源转型。能源转型的核心内容主要包括两方面：一是节能提效，通过提高能源利用效率节约能源，控制能源消费总量；二是能源结构调整，通过开发利用可再生能源替代传统的化石能源，使能源消费实现清洁低碳化。

本文旨在探讨能源转型的两大目标是否相容，即能源结构的清洁低碳化调整是增加还是减少了能源消费。已有的研究成果中揭示了煤炭的利用效率低于石油和天然气等能源品种，所以煤炭比重的下降可以提高能源利用效率减少能源消费总量。但也有部分研究得出我国的能源结构调整没有导致能源消费变动，并将其归因于能源结构调整幅度过小。在现有文献的基础上，本文选取了2000-2018年中国省级面板数据，深入探讨能源消费结构调整影响能源消费的作用机理和路径。首先，利用通径分析得出了不同能源品种对能源强度的直接和间接影响。进一步选取一次能源结构作为能源消费的核心解释变量，选取GDP、产业结构、技术水平、外商投资和能源价格等可能影响能源消费的因素作为控制变量，运用面板回归的方法研究不同能源品种和不同区域下能源结构对能源消费的影响。最后，在理论和实证研究的基础上，从能源结构调整的角度为能源转型提出政策建议。

通过对以上内容的研究，本论文得到的结论如下：在通径分析中，能源消费结构和产业结构对能源强度的解释能力达到了93%，相较于煤炭和石油，天然气和一次电力具有更高的热效率，其比重的上升不仅能够直接降低能源强度，还可以通过对煤炭和石油的间接影响引起能源强度的下降；实证结果显示能源消费结构中天然气和一次电力的比重上升可以降低能源消费，而煤品比重上升会带来能源消费的增加。即目前我国实施的能源消费结构调整与控制能源消费总量可以实现目标相容，且一次电力是目前最为节能高效的能源品种。进一步通过异质性分析发现，能源结构调整在不同地区显现出不同效果，对于能源消费量较低的中西部地区，能源结构调整的节能效果更加显著，而对于能源消费量较高的东部地区，能源结构调整的节能效果相对较差。本文的创新之处在于，一是取代了以往单纯考虑煤炭比重下降对能源消费或能源效率的影响，理清了煤炭向可再生能源转型对能源消费的影响，揭示了能源结构调整与能源消费的相容性；二是能源结构调整效果在不同地区间存在较大差异,本文对能源结构影响能源消费的地区层面差异进行了理论解释。

根据本文得出的结论，提出以下政策建议：一是在设定能源转型目标过程中，考虑到能源结构调整发挥的节能作用，综合考量经济水平、产业结构和技术水平等因素，因地制宜的制定能源结构调整和能源消费目标；二是深化能源领域市场化改革，建立能够反映市场供需关系的煤炭定价机制，完善可再生能源定价机制和实施清洁能源消纳计划；三是通过加大可再生能源支持力度和广泛开展国际领域的可再生能源合作，为能源转型提供动力。

In the face of the severe environmental constraints and the pressure of global warming, the energy transition in the world is in the ascendant. In the Eighteenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2018, it was clearly proposed to promote the revolution of energy production and consumption, and gradually determined the strategic direction of building a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient modern energy system. In 2020, China pledged to the world to achieve a carbon peak by 2030 and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. It clarifies the direction of the energy transition and requires acceleration of the energy transition. The core of energy transition mainly includes two aspects: one thing is energy conservation and efficiency improvement, which is to save energy and control total energy consumption by improving energy intensity; the other thing is energy structure adjustment, which is to replace fossil energy with renewable energy. Energy consumption will be clean and low-carbon.

This article aims to explore whether the two goals of the energy transition are compatible: the adjustment of the energy structure increases or decreases the total energy consumption? Existing research results concluded that the thermal efficiency of coal is lower than oil and natural gas, so the decline in the proportion of coal can improve energy utilization efficiency and control total energy consumption. However, some studies have concluded that china's energy structure adjustment did not lead to changes in energy consumption, and they attributed it to the small adjustment of the energy structure. On the basis of the existing literature, this paper selects China's provincial panel data from 2000 to 2018 to deeply explore the mechanism and path of the adjustment of energy consumption structure affecting energy consumption. First, the path analysis is used to obtain the direct and indirect effects of different energy types on energy intensity. Selecting primary energy structure as the core variable of energy consumption, select GDP, industrial structure, technology, FDI and energy prices that may affect energy consumption as control variables, and use panel regression methods to study different energy varieties and different regions under the influence of energy structure on energy consumption. Finally, on the basis of theoretical and empirical research, it provides policy recommendations for energy transition from the perspective of energy structure adjustment.

Through the research of the above questions, the conclusions are as follows: In the path analysis, the energy consumption structure and industrial structure can explain energy intensity up to 93%, natural gas and primary electricity are more effective than coal and oil because of high thermal efficiency, an increase in its proportion can not only directly reduce energy intensity, but also cause a decline in energy intensity through indirect effects on coal and oil; empirical results show that the increase in the proportion of natural gas and primary power can reduce energy consumption. The increase in the proportion of coal will increase energy consumption. That is to say, the current energy consumption structure adjustment implemented in my country is compatible with the goal of controlling the total energy consumption, and primary power is currently the most efficient energy varieties. Further analysis of heterogeneity found that the energy structure adjustment showed different effects in different regions. For the central and western regions with low energy consumption, the energy-saving effect of energy structure adjustment was more significant, while for the eastern regions with high energy consumption, the energy-saving effect of energy structure adjustment is relatively poor. The innovations of this article are that, the first is to replace the previous consideration of the impact of the decline in the proportion of coal on energy consumption or energy efficiency, to clarify the impact of the transition from coal to renewable energy on energy consumption, and to reveal the compatibility of energy structure adjustment and energy consumption; the second is the effect of structural adjustment varies greatly among different regions. This article provides a theoretical explanation for the regional differences in energy structure affecting energy consumption.

Based on the conclusions, this article puts forward the following policy recommendations: first, in the process of setting energy transition goals, consider the energy-saving role played by the adjustment of energy structure, comprehensively consider factors such as economic level, industrial structure and technical level, and formulate the goals of energy structural adjustment and energy consumption according to local conditions; second, government should deepen market-oriented reforms in the energy sector, establish a coal pricing mechanism that reflects the relationship between market supply and demand, improve the renewable energy pricing mechanism, and implement clean energy consumption plans; third, government should increase support for renewable energy and extensively develop renewable energy cooperation in the international field to provide impetus for the energy transition.