中文题名: | RCEP成员国贸易便利化水平对中国数字交付贸易出口的影响 |
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保密级别: | 公开 |
论文语种: | chi |
学科代码: | 020100 |
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学生类型: | 硕士 |
学位: | 经济学硕士 |
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学位年度: | 2024 |
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研究方向: | 区域经济 |
第一导师姓名: | |
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提交日期: | 2024-06-26 |
答辩日期: | 2024-05-21 |
外文题名: | The Relationship Between Trade Facilitation Level and China's Digital Delivery Trade Export ——Based on the Research of RCEP Member Countries |
中文关键词: | 区域全面经济伙伴关系协定 ; 贸易便利化 ; 数字交付贸易 |
外文关键词: | |
中文摘要: |
从2012年开始谈判,RCEP协定在2020年由东盟十国以及中国、日本、韩国、澳大利亚、新西兰等15个国家正式签署,然后在2022年在各成员国生效,历时长达十年。中国与RCEP其他成员国之间的贸易关系得到了广泛而密切的关注,随着数字经济的发展,讨论中国与RCEP国家之间的数字贸易关系也成为国际贸易研究领域的一个方向。 本研究着重强调RCEP国家贸易便利化水平、贸易政策对中国出口数字交付贸易的影响。在详细梳理RCEP条款以及当前国内外学者对于贸易便利化及数字贸易领域的相关研究之后,建立了理论分析模型。模型主要针对关税同盟理论、比较优势理论和要素禀赋理论基于国际贸易引力模型的一般框架展开探讨,并建立了贸易便利化水平、国际贸易政策对中国数字交付贸易出口影响的引力模型(Gravity model)。然后基于世界经合组织(OECD)和联合国贸易和发展会议(UNCTAD)数据库对中国、RCEP以及世界范围的数字交付贸易进行的分析比较,发现疫情对数字交付贸易的潜能有所激发,RCEP成员国不同国家之间数字交付贸易的差距仍然较大。接下来,本文利用《全球竞争力》报告的数据从2009至2019年对RCEP国家贸易便利化程度进行了评估,并对其进行了量化。接着,采用主成分分析方法确定了口岸及港口效能、海关环境、制度环境以及金融与电子商务等四大核心要素下13个二级指标的重要度,从而得出相应的年度贸易便利化指标值。 在实证部分,主要基于世界经合组织(OECD)的双边数字服务贸易数据,构造了混合回归和固定效应模型,其中加入了GATT协定的政策变量。实证研究揭示出以下结论:首先,当进口国的贸易便利化程度提升时,中国的数字交付贸易出口量将会相应增加,弹性系数为2.179;其次,RCEP成员国口岸环境、海关环境、制度环境以及金融环境都对中国数字交付贸易出口产生了积极作用,其相关系数分别达到1.426、1.866、1.250、2.370;最后,在机制分析中,通过中介效应分析,关税贸易总协定(GATT)对贸易便利化的中介效应系数为1.19,对4个指标的中介影响力也相当可观,影响系数分别为1.148、1.231、1.150、1.322,间接影响了中国数字交付贸易的出口。上述结论在更改TFI测度方式及权重后以及增加联合国外交分歧得分、双边是否签订贸易协定的控制变量后,依然高度显著,通过了稳健性检验。对于结论进行异质性分析发现,发展中国家贸易便利化水平的影响明显高于发达国家,2014年之前贸易便利化对中国数字交付贸易出口的影响显著高于2014年之后,而2014年之后数字贸易限制对于中国对外数字交付贸易出口产生了更大的负面作用。进口国资源禀赋差异对于中国的数字交付贸易出口产生了明显的异质性,资源禀赋较高的国家贸易便利化水平的影响也更大。 贸易便利化提升对中国数字交付贸易的促进作用以及贸易政策的直接、间接效应,再次说明了RCEP成员国与中国之间需要加强贸易合作往来的重要性。中国应该借助RCEP协定签订释放的贸易红利,进一步降低与全球各国的制度运行壁垒,加强与RCEP国家基础设施的互联互通、促进与其他RCEP成员国的跨境数字化合作、改善跨境贸易制度环境、积极发展数字服务创新能力,提升数字服务竞争力,推动亚太地区和世界经济贸易合作共荣、创新发展和可持续发展。 |
外文摘要: |
Starting from 2012, the RCEP agreement was formally signed by ten ASEAN countries and other 5 countries including China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand in 2020, and then entered into force in each member country in 2022, which lasted for ten years. There has been significant interest focused on the trade ties between China and the remaining RCEP members. As the digital economy advances, the examination of the digital trade partnership between China and RCEP nations has emerged as a focal point in the realm of global trade studies. The research centers on the effect of RCEP member nations' trade facilitation levels on China's digital delivery commerce exports. Following an extensive examination of the RCEP stipulations and the latest studies by domestic and international experts on trade facilitation and digital trade, a theoretical analytical framework was devised. This framework primarily focuses on the overarching structure of the international trade gravity model, utilizing theories such as tariff alliance theory, comparative advantage theory, and factor endowment theory. Additionally, it establishes a gravity model to assess the influence of trade facilitation extent on China's digitally deliverable commerce exports. After analyzing and comparing the digital delivery trade of China, RCEP, and global trade worldwide using data from the OECD and the UNCTAD, it is evident that the pandemic has spurred the growth of digital trade, revealing significant disparities in digital trade among RCEP member countries. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) technique is utilized to assign 13 secondary index weights to the four primary indicators of port efficiency, customs environment, regulatory framework, and finance and e-business usage, as per the information gathered from the Global Competitiveness Report spanning from 2009 to 2019, so as to obtain the corresponding annual Trade Facilitation Index value. In the empirical part, mainly based on the bilateral service trade data of the World Economic Cooperation Organization (OECD), a mixed regression and fixed effect model is constructed, which includes the policy variables of the GATT agreement. The empirical results show that: (1) When the level of trade facilitation in importing countries increases, China's digital delivery trade exports will increase accordingly. From the perspective of comprehensive indicators, for every 1 % increase of Trade Facilitation Index in importing countries, China 's digital delivery trade exports to the country will increase by 2.179%. (2) The influence coefficients of port efficiency, customs environment, own regulatory environment, financial and e-business usage of RCEP member countries on China 's foreign digital trade export are 1.426,1.866,1.250 and 2.370 respectively. (3) In the analysis of mechanisms, examining the mediating effect reveals that China's digital delivery trade export is significantly influenced by its accession to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). China 's digital delivery trade export is significantly promoted by trade facilitation. The mediating effect coefficient of trade facilitation is 1.19, and the mediating influence on the four indicators is also considerable. The influence coefficients are 1.148,1.231,1.150 and 1.322 respectively, which indirectly affects China 's digital delivery trade export. Robustness testing was conducted by replacing variables and adding control variables. After changing the measurement method and weight of TFI and adding control variables such as the United Nations diplomatic divergence score and the dummy variable of whether the two sides have signed a trade agreement, the above conclusion is still highly significant, which shows the conclusion is robust. Heterogeneity analysis of the conclusions found that the impact of trade facilitation levels in developing countries was significantly higher than that of developed countries. The impact of trade facilitation on China's digital delivery trade exports before 2014 was significantly higher than after 2014, and after 2014 Digital trade restrictions have had a greater negative impact on China’s external digital delivery trade exports. The difference in resource endowments of importing countries has a significant heterogeneity in China 's digital delivery trade exports, and the level of trade facilitation in countries with higher resource endowments has a greater impact. The promotion of trade facilitation to China 's digital delivery trade and the direct and indirect effects of trade policies (such as GATT) once again illustrate the importance of strengthening trade cooperation between other RCEP member countries and China. China is expected to take advantage of the trade dividends unlocked by signing the RCEP agreement to further reduce institutional operational barriers with countries around the world, strengthen infrastructure connectivity with other RCEP countries, promote cross-border digital cooperation with them, improve the cross-border trade institutional environment, actively develop digital service innovation capabilities, enhance the competitiveness of digital services, and promote collaboration on economic and trade matters, fostering innovation, and promoting sustainable progress in the Asia-Pacific region and globally. |
参考文献总数: | 112 |
作者简介: | 研究生期间参加《“一带一路”投资安全保障体系研究》、《中国星网国际化路径研究》、《中国星网商业化模式研究》等项目,连续两年获得学业奖学金。独立作者于Journal of Humanities, Arts and Social Science杂志发表论文Analysis and Discussion of the Problems in the Process of State-owned Enterprise Reform。 |
馆藏号: | 硕020100/24004 |
开放日期: | 2025-06-27 |